Ecology Colloquium Series - Unintended consequences of control for Zika virus

September 21, 2016 @ 01:20 pm to 02:10 pm

Spencer Carran, Penn State

301D Life Sciences

Event Website

For pathogens with age-specific virulence profiles, such as rubella and, more recently, zika, any proposed intervention must be evaluated both in terms of its effect on overall incidence and its effect on the distribution of incidence within a heterogeneously impacted population. Using a demographic projection model, I consider the potential impact of reductions in Zika transmission on cumulative at-risk pregnancies in Brazil over a span of several decades, identifying scenarios under which intervention to slow the spread of a novel pathogen will and will not provide a net benefit to public health.

Contact

Dr. David Eissenstat
dme9@psu.edu