Ottar Bjornstad

Huck Chair of Epidemiology; Distinguished Professor of Entomology and Biology; Adjunct Professor in Statistics

Ottar Bjornstad

Research Summary

Population ecology and population dynamics with particular emphasis on mathematical and computational aspects

Huck Graduate Students

Huck Affiliations

Links

Publication Tags

Influenza Population Dynamics Temperature Disease Outbreaks Epidemics Uncertainty Human Influenza Infection Immunity Vaccines Climate Culicidae Incidence Insects Humidity Insecta China Measles Phenology Pandemics Anopheles Coronavirus Geography Temporal Variation Malaria

Most Recent Papers

A competing-risks model explains hierarchical spatial coupling of measles epidemics en route to national elimination

Max S.Y. Lau, Alexander D. Becker, Hannah M. Korevaar, Quentin Caudron, Darren J. Shaw, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Bryan T. Grenfell, 2020, Nature Ecology and Evolution on p. 934-939

The SEIRS model for infectious disease dynamics

Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, Martin Krzywinski, Naomi Altman, 2020, Nature Methods on p. 557-558

An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Huaiyu Tian, Yonghong Liu, Yidan Li, Chieh Hsi Wu, Bin Chen, Moritz U.G. Kraemer, Bingying Li, Jun Cai, Bo Xu, Qiqi Yang, Ben Wang, Peng Yang, Yujun Cui, Yimeng Song, Pai Zheng, Quanyi Wang, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Ruifu Yang, Bryan T. Grenfell, Oliver G. Pybus, Christopher Dye, 2020, Science on p. 638-642

Identifying age cohorts responsible for peste des petits ruminants virus transmission among sheep, goats, and cattle in northern Tanzania

C. M. Herzog, W. A. de Glanville, B. J. Willett, I. M. Cattadori, V. Kapur, P. J. Hudson, J. Buza, E. S. Swai, S. Cleaveland, O. N. Bjørnstad, 2020, Viruses

Concurrent assessment of epidemiological and operational uncertainties for optimal outbreak control

Shou Li Li, Matthew J. Ferrari, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Michael C. Runge, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Michael J. Tildesley, David Pannell, Katriona Shea, 2019, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Local and regional climate variables driving spring phenology of tortricid pests

Damie Pak, David Biddinger, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2019, Ecological Entomology on p. 367-379

Geographic transmission hubs of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States

Stephen M. Kissler, Julia R. Gog, Cécile Viboud, Vivek Charu, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Lone Simonsen, Bryan T. Grenfell, 2019, Epidemics on p. 86-94

Climate-driven variation in mosquito density predicts the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue

Ruiyun Li, Lei Xu, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Keke Liu, Tie Song, Aifang Chen, Bing Xu, Qiyong Liu, Nils C. Stenseth, 2019, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America on p. 3624-3629

Asymmetric interactions and their consequences for vital rates and dynamics

W. A. Nelson, B. Joncour, D. Pak, O. N. Bjørnstad, 2019, Ecology

Quantifying spatio-temporal variation of invasion spread

Joshua Goldstein, Jaewoo Park, Murali Haran, Andrew Liebhold, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2019, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Most-Cited Papers

An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Huaiyu Tian, Yonghong Liu, Yidan Li, Chieh Hsi Wu, Bin Chen, Moritz U.G. Kraemer, Bingying Li, Jun Cai, Bo Xu, Qiqi Yang, Ben Wang, Peng Yang, Yujun Cui, Yimeng Song, Pai Zheng, Quanyi Wang, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Ruifu Yang, Bryan T. Grenfell, Oliver G. Pybus, Christopher Dye, 2020, Science on p. 638-642

The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission

Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson, William A. Nelson, Krijn P. Paaijmans, Andrew F. Read, Matthew B. Thomas, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2013, PLoS One

Natural immune boosting in pertussis dynamics and the potential for long-term vaccine failure

Jennie S. Lavine, Aaron A. King, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America on p. 7259-7264

Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities

Benjamin D. Dalziel, Stephen Kissler, Julia R. Gog, Cecile Viboud, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell, 2018, Science on p. 75-79

Spatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US

Julia R. Gog, Sébastien Ballesteros, Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Jeffrey Shaman, Dennis L. Chao, Farid Khan, Bryan T. Grenfell, 2014, PLoS Computational Biology

The geography of spatial synchrony

Jonathan A. Walter, Lawrence W. Sheppard, Thomas L. Anderson, Jude H. Kastens, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Andrew M. Liebhold, Daniel C. Reuman, 2017, Ecology Letters on p. 801-814

Recurrent insect outbreaks caused by temperature-driven changes in system stability

William A. Nelson, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Takehiko Yamanaka, 2013, Science on p. 796-799

Short-lived immunity against pertussis, age-specific routes of transmission, and the utility of a teenage booster vaccine

Jennie S. Lavine, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio, Jann Storsaeter, 2012, Vaccine on p. 544-551

Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States

Vivek Charu, Scott Zeger, Julia Gog, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Stephen Kissler, Lone Simonsen, Bryan T. Grenfell, Cécile Viboud, 2017, PLoS Computational Biology

Geographical variation in the spatial synchrony of a forest-defoliating insect

Kyle J. Haynes, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Andrew J. Allstadt, Andrew M. Liebhold, 2013, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

News Articles Featuring Ottar Bjornstad

Jan 14, 2021

Coronavirus updates: COVID-19 reduces US life expectancy; Biden introduces spending plan; Pope Francis gets Pfizer vaccine

USA TODAY is keeping track of the news surrounding COVID-19 as a pair of vaccines join the U.S. fight against a virus that has killed nearly 385,000 Americans since the first reported fatality in February.

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Apr 24, 2020

Two Great Valley professors awarded seed grants for COVID-19 research

Despite being limited to virtual interactions and meetings, Penn State Great Valley faculty continue to conduct innovative research. Ashkan Negahban, assistant professor of engineering management, and Satish Srinivasan, assistant professor of information science, were awarded seed grants to fund projects to help address the COVID-19 crisis.

Full Article

Apr 19, 2020

Coronavirus: How CDC Lab Contamination, And A Failure To Cooperate Globally, Led To Catastrophe

By the time the WHO chief made the above remarks, it had been almost two months since the US had identified its first case of COVID-19, the illness caused by novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

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Apr 06, 2020

Efforts to control livestock disease should focus on management style, not age

The risk of transmitting the virus PPRV, which produces a highly infectious and often fatal disease in sheep and goats, does not appear to vary significantly by an animal’s age, unlike its sibling virus measles, which is most prominent in children.

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Mar 31, 2020

China’s control measures may have prevented 700,000 COVID-19 cases

China’s control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic may have delayed the spread of the virus to cities outside of Wuhan by several days and, by interrupting transmission nationwide, prevented more than 700,000 infections across the country, according to an international team of researchers.

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Jan 09, 2020

The Virus Buried in a 100-Year-Old Lung

Scientists have managed to sequence the genome of a measles virus that infected a 2-year-old girl who died in 1912.

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Sep 03, 2019

Livestock disease risk tied to herd management style in Tanzania

A new study provides an updated picture of the prevalence of the sheep and goat plague virus (PPRV), a widespread and often fatal disease that threatens 80 percent of the world’s sheep and goats, in Northern Tanzania.

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May 09, 2019

CIDD Workshop Addesses the Construction and Maintenance of Immune Memory in Humans

Members of the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and guests covered a wide range of topics in their three-day congregation.

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May 02, 2019

Alumna Laura Russo receives Robert May Prize from the British Ecological Society

PSU alumna Laura Russo has been selected to receive the Robert May Prize from the British Ecological Society, the oldest ecological society in the world. The prize recognizes the best paper by an early career researcher in the society’s scientific journal Methods in Ecology and Evolution.

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