Ottar Bjornstad

Huck Chair of Epidemiology; Distinguished Professor of Entomology and Biology; Adjunct Professor in Statistics

Ottar Bjornstad

Research Summary

Population ecology and population dynamics with particular emphasis on mathematical and computational aspects

Huck Graduate Students

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Publication Tags

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Influenza Temperature Epidemics Pandemics Population Dynamics China Vaccination Coronavirus Culicidae Human Influenza Population Infections Disease Outbreaks Humidity Norway Immunity Incidence Geography Anopheles Life History Diapause Malaria Health Public Health Age Groups

Most Recent Publications

How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic

Nils Chr Stenseth, Rudolf Schlatte, Xiaoli Liu, Roger Pielke, Ruiyun Li, Bin Chen, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Dimitri Kusnezov, George F. Gao, Christophe Fraser, Jason D. Whittington, Yuqi Bai, Ke Deng, Peng Gong, Dabo Guan, Yixiong Xiao, Bing Xu, Einar Broch Johnsen, 2023, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Assessing the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection with age in China before mass vaccination

Zengmiao Wang, Peiyi Wu, Jingyuan Wang, José Lourenço, Bingying Li, Benjamin Rader, Marko Laine, Hui Miao, Ligui Wang, Hongbin Song, Nita Bharti, John S. Brownstein, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Christopher Dye, Huaiyu Tian, 2022, Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Incorporating diapause to predict the interannual dynamics of an important agricultural pest

Damie Pak, Spencer Carran, David Biddinger, Bill Nelson, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2022, Population Ecology on p. 267-279

An integrated experimental and mathematical approach to inferring the role of food exploitation and interference interactions in shaping life history

Barbara Joncour, William A. Nelson, Damie Pak, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2022, Functional Ecology on p. 1098-1112

Prioritizing vaccination by age and social activity to advance societal health benefits in Norway: a modelling study

Ruiyun Li, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Nils Chr Stenseth, 2021, The Lancet Regional Health - Europe

A general model for the demographic signatures of the transition from pandemic emergence to endemicity

Ruiyun Li, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Nils C. Stenseth, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2021, Science advances

Switching vaccination among target groups to achieve improved long-lasting benefits

Ruiyun Li, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Nils Chr Stenseth, 2021, Royal Society Open Science

The ecological dynamics of the coronavirus epidemics during transmission from outside sources when R 0 is successfully managed below one

Steinar Engen, Huaiyu Tian, Ruifu Yang, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Jason D. Whittington, Nils Chr Stenseth, 2021, Royal Society Open Science

Associations between changes in population mobility in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and socioeconomic factors at the city level in China and country level worldwide: a retrospective, observational study

Yonghong Liu, Zengmiao Wang, Benjamin Rader, Bingying Li, Chieh Hsi Wu, Jason D. Whittington, Pai Zheng, Nils Chr Stenseth, Ottar N. Bjornstad, John S. Brownstein, Huaiyu Tian, 2021, The Lancet Digital Health on p. e349-e359

Vaccinating children against SARS-CoV-2

Jennie S. Lavine, Ottar Bjornstad, Rustom Antia, 2021, The BMJ

Most-Cited Papers

An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Huaiyu Tian, Yonghong Liu, Yidan Li, Chieh Hsi Wu, Bin Chen, Moritz U.G. Kraemer, Bingying Li, Jun Cai, Bo Xu, Qiqi Yang, Ben Wang, Peng Yang, Yujun Cui, Yimeng Song, Pai Zheng, Quanyi Wang, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Ruifu Yang, Bryan T. Grenfell, Oliver G. Pybus, Christopher Dye, 2020, Science on p. 638-642

The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission

Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson, William A. Nelson, Krijn P. Paaijmans, Andrew F. Read, Matthew B. Thomas, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2013, PLoS One

Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities

Benjamin D. Dalziel, Stephen Kissler, Julia R. Gog, Cecile Viboud, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell, 2018, Science on p. 75-79

Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity

Jennie S. Lavine, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Rustom Antia, 2021, Science

Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States

Vivek Charu, Scott Zeger, Julia Gog, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Stephen Kissler, Lone Simonsen, Bryan T. Grenfell, Cécile Viboud, 2017, PLoS Computational Biology

Spatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US

Julia R. Gog, Sébastien Ballesteros, Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Jeffrey Shaman, Dennis L. Chao, Farid Khan, Bryan T. Grenfell, 2014, PLoS Computational Biology

The geography of spatial synchrony

Jonathan A. Walter, Lawrence W. Sheppard, Thomas L. Anderson, Jude H. Kastens, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Andrew M. Liebhold, Daniel C. Reuman, 2017, Ecology Letters on p. 801-814

Recurrent insect outbreaks caused by temperature-driven changes in system stability

William A. Nelson, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Takehiko Yamanaka, 2013, Science on p. 796-799

Climate-driven variation in mosquito density predicts the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue

Ruiyun Li, Lei Xu, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Keke Liu, Tie Song, Aifang Chen, Bing Xu, Qiyong Liu, Nils C. Stenseth, 2019, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America on p. 3624-3629

Quantifying seasonal population fluxes driving rubella transmission dynamics using mobile phone data

Amy Wesolowski, C. J.E. Metcalf, Nathan Eagle, Janeth Kombich, Bryan T. Grenfell, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Justin Lessler, Andrew J. Tatem, Caroline O. Buckee, 2015, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America on p. 11114-11119

News Articles Featuring Ottar Bjornstad

Aug 16, 2022

Penn State research team will study Lassa virus spread in Nigeria

A team of researchers led by Penn State has been awarded $4 million from the National Science Foundation to investigate the elements that lead to the spread of Lassa virus from rodents to humans in Nigeria.

Full Article

Aug 23, 2021

Will COVID-19 become a mostly childhood disease?

Within the next few years, as the SARS-CoV-2 virus becomes endemic in the global population, COVID-19 may behave like other common-cold coronaviruses, affecting mostly young children who have not yet been vaccinated or exposed to the virus, according to new modeling results. Because COVID-19 severity is generally lower among children, the overall burden from this disease is expected to decline.

Full Article

Aug 12, 2021

Kids may eventually be more at risk of contracting COVID-19 than adults, study finds

Researchers say young children will become more susceptible to the virus over time

Full Article

Mar 17, 2021

Ottar Bjørnstad elected to Norwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters

Ottar N. Bjørnstad, distinguished professor of entomology and biology and J. Lloyd & Dorothy Foehr Huck Chair of Epidemiology at Penn State, has been elected to the Norwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters. Bjørnstad was recommended as a result of his significant contributions to the fields of population ecology and quantitative epidemiology.

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Mar 09, 2021

Another common cold virus?

If it becomes endemic — circulating in the general population — and most people are exposed in childhood, SARS-CoV-2 may join the ranks of mild cold-causing coronaviruses that currently circulate in humans.

Full Article

Jan 14, 2021

Coronavirus updates: COVID-19 reduces US life expectancy; Biden introduces spending plan; Pope Francis gets Pfizer vaccine

USA TODAY is keeping track of the news surrounding COVID-19 as a pair of vaccines join the U.S. fight against a virus that has killed nearly 385,000 Americans since the first reported fatality in February.

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Apr 24, 2020

Two Great Valley professors awarded seed grants for COVID-19 research

Despite being limited to virtual interactions and meetings, Penn State Great Valley faculty continue to conduct innovative research. Ashkan Negahban, assistant professor of engineering management, and Satish Srinivasan, assistant professor of information science, were awarded seed grants to fund projects to help address the COVID-19 crisis.

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Apr 19, 2020

Coronavirus: How CDC Lab Contamination, And A Failure To Cooperate Globally, Led To Catastrophe

By the time the WHO chief made the above remarks, it had been almost two months since the US had identified its first case of COVID-19, the illness caused by novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

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Apr 06, 2020

Efforts to control livestock disease should focus on management style, not age

The risk of transmitting the virus PPRV, which produces a highly infectious and often fatal disease in sheep and goats, does not appear to vary significantly by an animal’s age, unlike its sibling virus measles, which is most prominent in children.

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Mar 31, 2020

China’s control measures may have prevented 700,000 COVID-19 cases

China’s control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic may have delayed the spread of the virus to cities outside of Wuhan by several days and, by interrupting transmission nationwide, prevented more than 700,000 infections across the country, according to an international team of researchers.

Full Article