Ottar Bjornstad

Huck Chair of Epidemiology; Distinguished Professor of Entomology and Biology; Adjunct Professor in Statistics

Ottar Bjornstad

Research Summary

Population ecology and population dynamics with particular emphasis on mathematical and computational aspects

Huck Graduate Students

Huck Affiliations


Publication Tags

Influenza Temperature Population Dynamics Pandemics Epidemics Coronavirus Vaccination China Culicidae Human Influenza Immunity Population Humidity Norway Disease Outbreaks Incidence Diapause Anopheles Geography Malaria Life History Infections Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Health Public Health

Most Recent Publications

Incorporating diapause to predict the interannual dynamics of an important agricultural pest

Damie Pak, Spencer Carran, David Biddinger, Bill Nelson, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2022, Population Ecology on p. 267-279

An integrated experimental and mathematical approach to inferring the role of food exploitation and interference interactions in shaping life history

Barbara Joncour, William A. Nelson, Damie Pak, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2022, Functional Ecology on p. 1098-1112

Ruiyun Li, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Nils Chr Stenseth, 2021, The Lancet Regional Health - Europe

Ruiyun Li, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Nils C. Stenseth, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2021, Science advances

Ruiyun Li, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Nils Chr Stenseth, 2021, Royal Society Open Science

Steinar Engen, Huaiyu Tian, Ruifu Yang, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Jason D. Whittington, Nils Chr Stenseth, 2021, Royal Society Open Science

Yonghong Liu, Zengmiao Wang, Benjamin Rader, Bingying Li, Chieh Hsi Wu, Jason D. Whittington, Pai Zheng, Nils Chr Stenseth, Ottar N. Bjornstad, John S. Brownstein, Huaiyu Tian, 2021, The Lancet Digital Health on p. e349-e359

Jennie S. Lavine, Ottar Bjornstad, Rustom Antia, 2021, The BMJ

Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, Martin Krzywinski, Naomi S. Altman, 2021, Nature Methods on p. 321

Jennie S. Lavine, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Rustom Antia, 2021, Science

Most-Cited Papers

Huaiyu Tian, Yonghong Liu, Yidan Li, Chieh Hsi Wu, Bin Chen, Moritz U.G. Kraemer, Bingying Li, Jun Cai, Bo Xu, Qiqi Yang, Ben Wang, Peng Yang, Yujun Cui, Yimeng Song, Pai Zheng, Quanyi Wang, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Ruifu Yang, Bryan T. Grenfell, Oliver G. Pybus, Christopher Dye, 2020, Science on p. 638-642

Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson, William A. Nelson, Krijn P. Paaijmans, Andrew F. Read, Matthew B. Thomas, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2013, PLoS One

Benjamin D. Dalziel, Stephen Kissler, Julia R. Gog, Cecile Viboud, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell, 2018, Science on p. 75-79

Jennie S. Lavine, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Rustom Antia, 2021, Science

Julia R. Gog, Sébastien Ballesteros, Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Jeffrey Shaman, Dennis L. Chao, Farid Khan, Bryan T. Grenfell, 2014, PLoS Computational Biology

Vivek Charu, Scott Zeger, Julia Gog, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Stephen Kissler, Lone Simonsen, Bryan T. Grenfell, Cécile Viboud, 2017, PLoS Computational Biology

The geography of spatial synchrony

Jonathan A. Walter, Lawrence W. Sheppard, Thomas L. Anderson, Jude H. Kastens, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Andrew M. Liebhold, Daniel C. Reuman, 2017, Ecology Letters on p. 801-814

Recurrent insect outbreaks caused by temperature-driven changes in system stability

William A. Nelson, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Takehiko Yamanaka, 2013, Science on p. 796-799

Amy Wesolowski, C. J.E. Metcalf, Nathan Eagle, Janeth Kombich, Bryan T. Grenfell, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Justin Lessler, Andrew J. Tatem, Caroline O. Buckee, 2015, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America on p. 11114-11119

Ruiyun Li, Lei Xu, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Keke Liu, Tie Song, Aifang Chen, Bing Xu, Qiyong Liu, Nils C. Stenseth, 2019, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America on p. 3624-3629

News Articles Featuring Ottar Bjornstad

Penn State research team will study Lassa virus spread in Nigeria

A team of researchers led by Penn State has been awarded $4 million from the National Science Foundation to investigate the elements that lead to the spread of Lassa virus from rodents to humans in Nigeria.

Will COVID-19 become a mostly childhood disease?

Within the next few years, as the SARS-CoV-2 virus becomes endemic in the global population, COVID-19 may behave like other common-cold coronaviruses, affecting mostly young children who have not yet been vaccinated or exposed to the virus, according to new modeling results. Because COVID-19 severity is generally lower among children, the overall burden from this disease is expected to decline.

Kids may eventually be more at risk of contracting COVID-19 than adults, study finds

Researchers say young children will become more susceptible to the virus over time

Ottar Bjørnstad elected to Norwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters

Ottar N. Bjørnstad, distinguished professor of entomology and biology and J. Lloyd & Dorothy Foehr Huck Chair of Epidemiology at Penn State, has been elected to the Norwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters. Bjørnstad was recommended as a result of his significant contributions to the fields of population ecology and quantitative epidemiology.

Another common cold virus?

If it becomes endemic — circulating in the general population — and most people are exposed in childhood, SARS-CoV-2 may join the ranks of mild cold-causing coronaviruses that currently circulate in humans.

Coronavirus updates: COVID-19 reduces US life expectancy; Biden introduces spending plan; Pope Francis gets Pfizer vaccine

USA TODAY is keeping track of the news surrounding COVID-19 as a pair of vaccines join the U.S. fight against a virus that has killed nearly 385,000 Americans since the first reported fatality in February.

Two Great Valley professors awarded seed grants for COVID-19 research

Despite being limited to virtual interactions and meetings, Penn State Great Valley faculty continue to conduct innovative research. Ashkan Negahban, assistant professor of engineering management, and Satish Srinivasan, assistant professor of information science, were awarded seed grants to fund projects to help address the COVID-19 crisis.

Coronavirus: How CDC Lab Contamination, And A Failure To Cooperate Globally, Led To Catastrophe

By the time the WHO chief made the above remarks, it had been almost two months since the US had identified its first case of COVID-19, the illness caused by novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

Efforts to control livestock disease should focus on management style, not age

The risk of transmitting the virus PPRV, which produces a highly infectious and often fatal disease in sheep and goats, does not appear to vary significantly by an animal’s age, unlike its sibling virus measles, which is most prominent in children.

China’s control measures may have prevented 700,000 COVID-19 cases

China’s control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic may have delayed the spread of the virus to cities outside of Wuhan by several days and, by interrupting transmission nationwide, prevented more than 700,000 infections across the country, according to an international team of researchers.