Ottar Bjornstad
Huck Chair of Epidemiology; Distinguished Professor of Entomology and Biology; Adjunct Professor in Statistics

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W-129 Millennium Science Complex
University Park, PA 16802 - onb1@psu.edu
- 814-863-2983
Research Summary
Population ecology and population dynamics with particular emphasis on mathematical and computational aspects
Huck Graduate Students
Huck Affiliations
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics
- Ecology
- Molecular, Cellular, and Integrative Biosciences
- Ecology Institute
- Microbiome Center
- Center for Mathematical Biology
- Insect Biodiversity Center
Links
Publication Tags
Influenza Population Dynamics Temperature Disease Outbreaks Epidemics Uncertainty Human Influenza Infection Immunity Vaccines Climate Culicidae Incidence Insects Humidity Insecta China Measles Phenology Pandemics Anopheles Coronavirus Geography Temporal Variation MalariaMost Recent Papers
A competing-risks model explains hierarchical spatial coupling of measles epidemics en route to national elimination
Max S.Y. Lau, Alexander D. Becker, Hannah M. Korevaar, Quentin Caudron, Darren J. Shaw, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Bryan T. Grenfell, 2020, Nature Ecology and Evolution on p. 934-939
The SEIRS model for infectious disease dynamics
Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, Martin Krzywinski, Naomi Altman, 2020, Nature Methods on p. 557-558
An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China
Huaiyu Tian, Yonghong Liu, Yidan Li, Chieh Hsi Wu, Bin Chen, Moritz U.G. Kraemer, Bingying Li, Jun Cai, Bo Xu, Qiqi Yang, Ben Wang, Peng Yang, Yujun Cui, Yimeng Song, Pai Zheng, Quanyi Wang, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Ruifu Yang, Bryan T. Grenfell, Oliver G. Pybus, Christopher Dye, 2020, Science on p. 638-642
Identifying age cohorts responsible for peste des petits ruminants virus transmission among sheep, goats, and cattle in northern Tanzania
C. M. Herzog, W. A. de Glanville, B. J. Willett, I. M. Cattadori, V. Kapur, P. J. Hudson, J. Buza, E. S. Swai, S. Cleaveland, O. N. Bjørnstad, 2020, Viruses
Concurrent assessment of epidemiological and operational uncertainties for optimal outbreak control
Shou Li Li, Matthew J. Ferrari, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Michael C. Runge, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Michael J. Tildesley, David Pannell, Katriona Shea, 2019, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Local and regional climate variables driving spring phenology of tortricid pests
Damie Pak, David Biddinger, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2019, Ecological Entomology on p. 367-379
Geographic transmission hubs of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States
Stephen M. Kissler, Julia R. Gog, Cécile Viboud, Vivek Charu, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Lone Simonsen, Bryan T. Grenfell, 2019, Epidemics on p. 86-94
Climate-driven variation in mosquito density predicts the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue
Ruiyun Li, Lei Xu, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Keke Liu, Tie Song, Aifang Chen, Bing Xu, Qiyong Liu, Nils C. Stenseth, 2019, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America on p. 3624-3629
Asymmetric interactions and their consequences for vital rates and dynamics
W. A. Nelson, B. Joncour, D. Pak, O. N. Bjørnstad, 2019, Ecology
Quantifying spatio-temporal variation of invasion spread
Joshua Goldstein, Jaewoo Park, Murali Haran, Andrew Liebhold, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2019, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Most-Cited Papers
An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China
Huaiyu Tian, Yonghong Liu, Yidan Li, Chieh Hsi Wu, Bin Chen, Moritz U.G. Kraemer, Bingying Li, Jun Cai, Bo Xu, Qiqi Yang, Ben Wang, Peng Yang, Yujun Cui, Yimeng Song, Pai Zheng, Quanyi Wang, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Ruifu Yang, Bryan T. Grenfell, Oliver G. Pybus, Christopher Dye, 2020, Science on p. 638-642
The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission
Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson, William A. Nelson, Krijn P. Paaijmans, Andrew F. Read, Matthew B. Thomas, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2013, PLoS One
Natural immune boosting in pertussis dynamics and the potential for long-term vaccine failure
Jennie S. Lavine, Aaron A. King, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America on p. 7259-7264
Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities
Benjamin D. Dalziel, Stephen Kissler, Julia R. Gog, Cecile Viboud, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell, 2018, Science on p. 75-79
Spatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US
Julia R. Gog, Sébastien Ballesteros, Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Jeffrey Shaman, Dennis L. Chao, Farid Khan, Bryan T. Grenfell, 2014, PLoS Computational Biology
The geography of spatial synchrony
Jonathan A. Walter, Lawrence W. Sheppard, Thomas L. Anderson, Jude H. Kastens, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Andrew M. Liebhold, Daniel C. Reuman, 2017, Ecology Letters on p. 801-814
Recurrent insect outbreaks caused by temperature-driven changes in system stability
William A. Nelson, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Takehiko Yamanaka, 2013, Science on p. 796-799
Short-lived immunity against pertussis, age-specific routes of transmission, and the utility of a teenage booster vaccine
Jennie S. Lavine, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio, Jann Storsaeter, 2012, Vaccine on p. 544-551
Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States
Vivek Charu, Scott Zeger, Julia Gog, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Stephen Kissler, Lone Simonsen, Bryan T. Grenfell, Cécile Viboud, 2017, PLoS Computational Biology
Geographical variation in the spatial synchrony of a forest-defoliating insect
Kyle J. Haynes, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Andrew J. Allstadt, Andrew M. Liebhold, 2013, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
News Articles Featuring Ottar Bjornstad
Jan 14, 2021
Coronavirus updates: COVID-19 reduces US life expectancy; Biden introduces spending plan; Pope Francis gets Pfizer vaccine
USA TODAY is keeping track of the news surrounding COVID-19 as a pair of vaccines join the U.S. fight against a virus that has killed nearly 385,000 Americans since the first reported fatality in February.
Full Article
Apr 24, 2020
Two Great Valley professors awarded seed grants for COVID-19 research
Despite being limited to virtual interactions and meetings, Penn State Great Valley faculty continue to conduct innovative research. Ashkan Negahban, assistant professor of engineering management, and Satish Srinivasan, assistant professor of information science, were awarded seed grants to fund projects to help address the COVID-19 crisis.
Full Article
Apr 19, 2020
Coronavirus: How CDC Lab Contamination, And A Failure To Cooperate Globally, Led To Catastrophe
By the time the WHO chief made the above remarks, it had been almost two months since the US had identified its first case of COVID-19, the illness caused by novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.
Full Article
Apr 06, 2020
Efforts to control livestock disease should focus on management style, not age
The risk of transmitting the virus PPRV, which produces a highly infectious and often fatal disease in sheep and goats, does not appear to vary significantly by an animal’s age, unlike its sibling virus measles, which is most prominent in children.
Full Article
Mar 31, 2020
China’s control measures may have prevented 700,000 COVID-19 cases
China’s control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic may have delayed the spread of the virus to cities outside of Wuhan by several days and, by interrupting transmission nationwide, prevented more than 700,000 infections across the country, according to an international team of researchers.
Full Article
Jan 09, 2020
The Virus Buried in a 100-Year-Old Lung
Scientists have managed to sequence the genome of a measles virus that infected a 2-year-old girl who died in 1912.
Full Article
Sep 03, 2019
Livestock disease risk tied to herd management style in Tanzania
A new study provides an updated picture of the prevalence of the sheep and goat plague virus (PPRV), a widespread and often fatal disease that threatens 80 percent of the world’s sheep and goats, in Northern Tanzania.
Full Article
May 09, 2019
CIDD Workshop Addesses the Construction and Maintenance of Immune Memory in Humans
Members of the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and guests covered a wide range of topics in their three-day congregation.
Full Article
May 02, 2019
Alumna Laura Russo receives Robert May Prize from the British Ecological Society
PSU alumna Laura Russo has been selected to receive the Robert May Prize from the British Ecological Society, the oldest ecological society in the world. The prize recognizes the best paper by an early career researcher in the society’s scientific journal Methods in Ecology and Evolution.
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