Ottar Bjornstad

Huck Chair of Epidemiology; Distinguished Professor of Entomology and Biology; Adjunct Professor in Statistics

Ottar Bjornstad

Research Summary

Population ecology and population dynamics with particular emphasis on mathematical and computational aspects

Huck Affiliations

Links

Most Recent Publications

Epidemic evolutionarily stable strategies within an age-structured host population

Andreas Eilersen, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Ruiyun Li, Sebastian J. Schreiber, Zeyuan Pei, Nils Chr Stenseth, 2025, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Larval crowding enhances dengue virus loads in Aedes aegypti, a relationship that might increase transmission in urban environments

Heverton L.C. Dutra, Dustin J. Marshall, Belinda Comerford, Brianna P. McNulty, Anastacia M. Diaz, Matthew J. Jones, Austin J. Mejia, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Elizabeth Mcgraw, 2024, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Empirical and model-based evidence for a negligible role of cattle in peste des petits ruminants virus transmission and eradication

Peter Hudson, Catherine M. Herzog, Fasil Aklilu, Demeke Sibhatu, Dereje Shegu, Redeat Belaineh, Abde Aliy Mohammed, Menbere Kidane, Claudia Schulz, Brian J. Willett, Sarah Cleaveland, Dalan Bailey, Andrew R. Peters, Isabella M. Cattadori, Hagos Asgedom, Joram Buza, Mesfin Sahle Forza, Tesfaye Rufael Chibssa, Solomon Gebre, Nick Juleff, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Michael D. Baron, Vivek Kapur, 2024, Communications Biology on p. 937

Author Correction: Supply chains create global benefits from improved vaccine accessibility (Nature Communications, (2023), 14, 1, (1569), 10.1038/s41467-023-37075-x)

Daoping Wang, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Tianyang Lei, Yida Sun, Jingwen Huo, Qi Hao, Zhao Zeng, Shupeng Zhu, Stéphane Hallegatte, Ruiyun Li, Dabo Guan, Nils C. Stenseth, 2023, Nature Communications

Supply chains create global benefits from improved vaccine accessibility

Daoping Wang, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Tianyang Lei, Yida Sun, Jingwen Huo, Qi Hao, Zhao Zeng, Shupeng Zhu, Stéphane Hallegatte, Ruiyun Li, Dabo Guan, Nils C. Stenseth, 2023, Nature Communications

A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics

Fuhan Yang, Joseph L. Servadio, Nguyen Thi Le Thanh, Ha Minh Lam, Marc Choisy, Pham Quang Thai, Tran Thi Nhu Thao, Nguyen Ha Thao Vy, Huynh Thi Phuong, Tran Dang Nguyen, Dong Thi Hoai Tam, Ephraim M. Hanks, Ha Vinh, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Nguyen Van Vinh Chau, Maciej F. Boni, 2023, BMJ Global Health

How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic

Nils Chr Stenseth, Rudolf Schlatte, Xiaoli Liu, Roger Pielke, Ruiyun Li, Bin Chen, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Dimitri Kusnezov, George F. Gao, Christophe Fraser, Jason D. Whittington, Yuqi Bai, Ke Deng, Peng Gong, Dabo Guan, Yixiong Xiao, Bing Xu, Einar Broch Johnsen, 2023, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Reply to Ekström and Ottersen: Real-time access to data during outbreaks is a key to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic

Nils C. Stenseth, Rudolf Schlatte, Xiaoli Liu, Roger Pielke, Bin Chen, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Dimitri Kusnezov, George F. Gao, Christophe Fraser, Jason D. Whittington, Peng Gong, Dabo Guan, Einar Broch Johnsen, 2023, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Assessing the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection with age in China before mass vaccination

Zengmiao Wang, Peiyi Wu, Jingyuan Wang, José Lourenço, Bingying Li, Benjamin Rader, Marko Laine, Hui Miao, Ligui Wang, Hongbin Song, Nita Bharti, John S. Brownstein, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Christopher Dye, Huaiyu Tian, 2022, Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Incorporating diapause to predict the interannual dynamics of an important agricultural pest

Damie Pak, Spencer Carran, David Biddinger, Bill Nelson, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2022, Population Ecology on p. 267-279

Most-Cited Papers

An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Huaiyu Tian, Yonghong Liu, Yidan Li, Chieh Hsi Wu, Bin Chen, Moritz U.G. Kraemer, Bingying Li, Jun Cai, Bo Xu, Qiqi Yang, Ben Wang, Peng Yang, Yujun Cui, Yimeng Song, Pai Zheng, Quanyi Wang, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Ruifu Yang, Bryan T. Grenfell, Oliver G. Pybus, Christopher Dye, 2020, Science on p. 638-642

Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity

Jennie S. Lavine, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Rustom Antia, 2021, Science

Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities

Benjamin D. Dalziel, Stephen Kissler, Julia R. Gog, Cecile Viboud, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell, 2018, Science on p. 75-79

Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States

Vivek Charu, Scott Zeger, Julia Gog, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Stephen Kissler, Lone Simonsen, Bryan T. Grenfell, Cécile Viboud, 2017, PLoS Computational Biology

The SEIRS model for infectious disease dynamics

Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, Martin Krzywinski, Naomi Altman, 2020, Nature Methods on p. 557-558

The geography of spatial synchrony

Jonathan A. Walter, Lawrence W. Sheppard, Thomas L. Anderson, Jude H. Kastens, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Andrew M. Liebhold, Daniel C. Reuman, 2017, Ecology Letters on p. 801-814

Climate-driven variation in mosquito density predicts the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue

Ruiyun Li, Lei Xu, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Keke Liu, Tie Song, Aifang Chen, Bing Xu, Qiyong Liu, Nils C. Stenseth, 2019, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America on p. 3624-3629

Quantifying seasonal population fluxes driving rubella transmission dynamics using mobile phone data

Amy Wesolowski, C. J.E. Metcalf, Nathan Eagle, Janeth Kombich, Bryan T. Grenfell, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Justin Lessler, Andrew J. Tatem, Caroline O. Buckee, 2015, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America on p. 11114-11119

The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk

Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson, William A. Nelson, Krijn P. Paaijmans, Andrewf Read, Matthew B. Thomas, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2017, Royal Society Open Science

Urbanization prolongs hantavirus epidemics in cities

Huaiyu Tian, Shixiong Hu, Bernard Cazelles, Gerardo Chowell, Lidong Gao, Marko Laine, Yapin Li, Huisuo Yang, Yidan Li, Qiqi Yang, Xin Tong, Ru Huang, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Hong Xiao, Nils Chr Stenseth, 2018, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America on p. 4707-4712

News Articles Featuring Ottar Bjornstad

Aug 16, 2022

Penn State research team will study Lassa virus spread in Nigeria

A team of researchers led by Penn State has been awarded $4 million from the National Science Foundation to investigate the elements that lead to the spread of Lassa virus from rodents to humans in Nigeria.

Full Article

Aug 23, 2021

Will COVID-19 become a mostly childhood disease?

Within the next few years, as the SARS-CoV-2 virus becomes endemic in the global population, COVID-19 may behave like other common-cold coronaviruses, affecting mostly young children who have not yet been vaccinated or exposed to the virus, according to new modeling results. Because COVID-19 severity is generally lower among children, the overall burden from this disease is expected to decline.

Full Article

Aug 12, 2021

Kids may eventually be more at risk of contracting COVID-19 than adults, study finds

Researchers say young children will become more susceptible to the virus over time

Full Article

Mar 17, 2021

Ottar Bjørnstad elected to Norwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters

Ottar N. Bjørnstad, distinguished professor of entomology and biology and J. Lloyd & Dorothy Foehr Huck Chair of Epidemiology at Penn State, has been elected to the Norwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters. Bjørnstad was recommended as a result of his significant contributions to the fields of population ecology and quantitative epidemiology.

Full Article

Mar 09, 2021

Another common cold virus?

If it becomes endemic — circulating in the general population — and most people are exposed in childhood, SARS-CoV-2 may join the ranks of mild cold-causing coronaviruses that currently circulate in humans.

Full Article

Jan 14, 2021

Coronavirus updates: COVID-19 reduces US life expectancy; Biden introduces spending plan; Pope Francis gets Pfizer vaccine

USA TODAY is keeping track of the news surrounding COVID-19 as a pair of vaccines join the U.S. fight against a virus that has killed nearly 385,000 Americans since the first reported fatality in February.

Full Article

Apr 24, 2020

Two Great Valley professors awarded seed grants for COVID-19 research

Despite being limited to virtual interactions and meetings, Penn State Great Valley faculty continue to conduct innovative research. Ashkan Negahban, assistant professor of engineering management, and Satish Srinivasan, assistant professor of information science, were awarded seed grants to fund projects to help address the COVID-19 crisis.

Full Article

Apr 19, 2020

Coronavirus: How CDC Lab Contamination, And A Failure To Cooperate Globally, Led To Catastrophe

By the time the WHO chief made the above remarks, it had been almost two months since the US had identified its first case of COVID-19, the illness caused by novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

Full Article

Apr 06, 2020

Efforts to control livestock disease should focus on management style, not age

The risk of transmitting the virus PPRV, which produces a highly infectious and often fatal disease in sheep and goats, does not appear to vary significantly by an animal’s age, unlike its sibling virus measles, which is most prominent in children.

Full Article

Mar 31, 2020

China’s control measures may have prevented 700,000 COVID-19 cases

China’s control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic may have delayed the spread of the virus to cities outside of Wuhan by several days and, by interrupting transmission nationwide, prevented more than 700,000 infections across the country, according to an international team of researchers.

Full Article

Jan 09, 2020

The Virus Buried in a 100-Year-Old Lung

Scientists have managed to sequence the genome of a measles virus that infected a 2-year-old girl who died in 1912.

Full Article

Sep 03, 2019

Livestock disease risk tied to herd management style in Tanzania

A new study provides an updated picture of the prevalence of the sheep and goat plague virus (PPRV), a widespread and often fatal disease that threatens 80 percent of the world’s sheep and goats, in Northern Tanzania.

Full Article

May 09, 2019

CIDD Workshop Addesses the Construction and Maintenance of Immune Memory in Humans

Members of the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and guests covered a wide range of topics in their three-day congregation.

Full Article

May 02, 2019

Alumna Laura Russo receives Robert May Prize from the British Ecological Society

PSU alumna Laura Russo has been selected to receive the Robert May Prize from the British Ecological Society, the oldest ecological society in the world. The prize recognizes the best paper by an early career researcher in the society’s scientific journal Methods in Ecology and Evolution.

Full Article