Ottar Bjornstad

Huck Chair of Epidemiology; Distinguished Professor of Entomology and Biology; Adjunct Professor in Statistics

Ottar Bjornstad

Research Summary

Population ecology and population dynamics with particular emphasis on mathematical and computational aspects

Graduate Students

Huck Affiliations


Publication Tags

Immunity Vaccines Climate Vaccination Population Dynamics Uncertainty Disease Outbreaks Geographical Variation Whooping Cough Influenza Incidence Human Influenza Insects Pandemics Synchrony Infection Temperature Moth Lymantria Dispar Temporal Variation Humidity Methodology Perturbation Weather Pandemic

Most Recent Papers

Concurrent assessment of epidemiological and operational uncertainties for optimal outbreak control

Shou Li Li, Matthew J. Ferrari, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Michael C. Runge, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Michael J. Tildesley, David Pannell, Katriona Shea, 2019, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Local and regional climate variables driving spring phenology of tortricid pests

Damie Pak, David Biddinger, Ottar N. Bjornstad, 2019, Ecological Entomology on p. 367-379

Geographic transmission hubs of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States

Stephen M. Kissler, Julia R. Gog, Cécile Viboud, Vivek Charu, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Lone Simonsen, Bryan T. Grenfell, 2019, Epidemics on p. 86-94

Climate-driven variation in mosquito density predicts the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue

Ruiyun Li, Lei Xu, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Keke Liu, Tie Song, Aifang Chen, Bing Xu, Qiyong Liu, Nils C. Stenseth, 2019, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America on p. 3624-3629

Asymmetric interactions and their consequences for vital rates and dynamics

W. A. Nelson, B. Joncour, D. Pak, Ottar N. Bjornstad, 2019, Ecology

Quantifying spatio-temporal variation of invasion spread

Joshua Goldstein, Jaewoo Park, Murali Haran, Andrew Liebhold, Ottar N. Bjornstad, 2019, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Pastoral production is associated with increased peste des petits ruminants seroprevalence in northern Tanzania across sheep, goats and cattle

C. M. Herzog, W. A. de Glanville, B. J. Willett, T. J. Kibona, I. M. Cattadori, V. Kapur, P. J. Hudson, J. Buza, S. Cleaveland, O. N. Bjørnstad, 2019, Epidemiology and Infection

Long-term dynamics of measles in London

Alexander D. Becker, Amy Wesolowski, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Bryan T. Grenfell, 2019, PLoS computational biology

Spatial synchrony in sub-arctic geometrid moth outbreaks reflects dispersal in larval and adult life cycle stages

Ole Petter Laksforsmo Vindstad, Jane Uhd Jepsen, Nigel Gilles Yoccoz, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Michel d.S. Mesquita, Rolf Anker Ims, 2019, Journal of Animal Ecology on p. 1134-1145

Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities

Benjamin D. Dalziel, Stephen Kissler, Julia R. Gog, Cecile Viboud, Ottar N. Bjornstad, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell, 2018, Science on p. 75-79

Most-Cited Papers

Natural immune boosting in pertussis dynamics and the potential for long-term vaccine failure

Jennie S. Lavine, Aaron A. King, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America on p. 7259-7264

Spatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US

Julia R. Gog, Sébastien Ballesteros, Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Jeffrey Shaman, Dennis L. Chao, Farid Khan, Bryan T. Grenfell, 2014, PLoS computational biology

Short-lived immunity against pertussis, age-specific routes of transmission, and the utility of a teenage booster vaccine

Jennie S. Lavine, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio, Jann Storsaeter, 2012, Vaccine on p. 544-551

The effect of seasonality, density and climate on the population dynamics of Montana deer mice, important reservoir hosts for Sin Nombre hantavirus

Angela D. Luis, Richard J. Douglass, James N. Mills, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2010, Journal of Animal Ecology on p. 462-470

Recurrent insect outbreaks caused by temperature-driven changes in system stability

William A. Nelson, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Takehiko Yamanaka, 2013, Science on p. 796-799

Partitioning regulatory mechanisms of within-host malaria dynamics using the effective propagation number

C. J.E. Metcalf, A. L. Graham, S. Huijben, V. C. Barclay, G. H. Long, B. T. Grenfell, A. F. Read, O. N. Bjørnstad, 2011, Science on p. 984-988

Geographical variation in the spatial synchrony of a forest-defoliating insect

Kyle J. Haynes, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Andrew J. Allstadt, Andrew M. Liebhold, 2013, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Imperfect vaccine-induced immunity and whooping cough transmission to infants

Jennie Lavine, Hélène Broutin, Eric T. Harvill, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, 2010, Vaccine on p. 11-16

Geographic variation in North American gypsy moth cycles

Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Christelle Robinet, Andrew M. Liebhold, 2010, Ecology on p. 106-118

The geography of spatial synchrony

Jonathan A. Walter, Lawrence W. Sheppard, Thomas L. Anderson, Jude H. Kastens, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Andrew M. Liebhold, Daniel C. Reuman, 2017, Ecology Letters on p. 801-814

News Articles Featuring Ottar Bjornstad

Two Great Valley professors awarded seed grants for COVID-19 research

Despite being limited to virtual interactions and meetings, Penn State Great Valley faculty continue to conduct innovative research. Ashkan Negahban, assistant professor of engineering management, and Satish Srinivasan, assistant professor of information science, were awarded seed grants to fund projects to help address the COVID-19 crisis.

Coronavirus: How CDC Lab Contamination, And A Failure To Cooperate Globally, Led To Catastrophe

By the time the WHO chief made the above remarks, it had been almost two months since the US had identified its first case of COVID-19, the illness caused by novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

Efforts to control livestock disease should focus on management style, not age

The risk of transmitting the virus PPRV, which produces a highly infectious and often fatal disease in sheep and goats, does not appear to vary significantly by an animal’s age, unlike its sibling virus measles, which is most prominent in children.

China’s control measures may have prevented 700,000 COVID-19 cases

China’s control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic may have delayed the spread of the virus to cities outside of Wuhan by several days and, by interrupting transmission nationwide, prevented more than 700,000 infections across the country, according to an international team of researchers.

The Virus Buried in a 100-Year-Old Lung

Scientists have managed to sequence the genome of a measles virus that infected a 2-year-old girl who died in 1912.