Katriona Shea

Professor of Biology; Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences

Katriona Shea

Research Summary

The use of ecological theory in population management.

Huck Graduate Students

Huck Affiliations


Publication Tags

Uncertainty Learning Decision Making Disease Outbreaks Farms Invasive Species Epidemics Vaccination Epidemiology Population Growth Electric Current Control Pollinator Hospitalization History Time Adaptive Management Phenology Public Health Population Carduus Nutans Foot And Mouth Disease Error Sampling Flowers Seeds

Most Recent Papers

Weighing the unknowns

Shou Li Li, Joseph Keller, Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, 2021, Journal of Applied Ecology on p. 1621-1630

Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making

James D. Nichols, Tiffany L. Bogich, Emily Howerton, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Rebecca K. Borchering, Matthew Ferrari, Murali Haran, Christopher Jewell, Kim M. Pepin, William J.M. Probert, Juliet R.C. Pulliam, Michael C. Runge, Michael Tildesley, Cecile Viboud, Katriona Shea, 2021, PLoS Biology

How disturbance history alters invasion success

Adam D. Miller, Hidetoshi Inamine, Angus Buckling, Stephen H. Roxburgh, Katriona Shea, 2021, Ecology Letters on p. 687-697

Author Correction

Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, Martin Krzywinski, Naomi S. Altman, 2021, Nature Methods on p. 321

Causes of delayed outbreak responses and their impacts on epidemic spread

Yun Tao, William J.M. Probert, Katriona Shea, Michael C. Runge, Kevin Lafferty, Michael Tildesley, Matthew Ferrari, 2021, Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Warming and shifting phenology accelerate an invasive plant life cycle

Joseph A. Keller, Katriona Shea, 2021, Ecology

Analyzing How Changes in the Health Status of Healthcare Workers Affects Epidemic Outcomes

I. Phadke, A. McKee, J. M. Conway, K. Shea, 2021, Journal of Hygiene on p. 1-27

Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

Rebecca K. Borchering, Cécile Viboud, Emily Howerton, Claire P. Smith, Shaun Truelove, Michael C. Runge, Nicholas G. Reich, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Salerno, Wilbert Van Panhuis, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, R. Freddy Obrecht, Laura Asher, Cash Costello, Michael Kelbaugh, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Molly E. Gallagher, Luke C. Mullany, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Juan Dent ScM, Kyra H. Grantz, Joshua Kaminsky, Stephen A. Lauer, Elizabeth C. Lee, Hannah R. Meredith, Javier Perez-Saez, Lindsay T. Keegan, Dean Karlen, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore Y. Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, James Schlitt, Patrick Corbett, Pyrros Alexander Telionis, Lijing Wang, Akhil Sai Peddireddy, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Anil Vullikanti, Madhav Marathe, Jessica M. Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael A. Johansson, Katriona Shea, Justin Lessler, 2021, MMWR Recommendations and Reports on p. 719-724

Oviposition response of the biocontrol agent Rhinocyllus conicus to resource distribution in its invasive host, Carduus nutans

Zeynep Sezen, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, 2021, Biological Control

Anticipating future learning affects current control decisions: a comparison between passive and active adaptive management in an epidemiological setting

Benjamin D. Atkins, Chris P. Jewell, Michael C. Runge, Matthew J. Ferrari, Katriona Shea, William J.M. Probert, Michael J. Tildesley, 2020, Journal of Theoretical Biology

Most-Cited Papers

How frequency and intensity shape diversity-disturbance relationships

Adam D. Miller, Stephen H. Roxburgh, Katriona Shea, 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America on p. 5643-5648

Supporting crop pollinators with floral resources

Laura Russo, Nelson Debarros, Suann Yang, Katriona Shea, David Mortensen, 2013, Ecology and Evolution on p. 3125-3140

A network model for plant-pollinator community assembly

Colin Campbell, Suann Yang, Réka Albert, Katriona Shea, 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America on p. 197-202

Adaptive Management and the Value of Information

Katriona Shea, Michael J. Tildesley, Michael C. Runge, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Matthew J. Ferrari, 2014, PLoS Biology on p. e1001970

Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology

E. J. Milner-Gulland, Katriona Shea, 2017, Journal of Applied Ecology on p. 2063-2068

Pollinator behavior mediates negative interactions between two congeneric invasive plant species

Suann Yang, Matthew J. Ferrari, Katriona Shea, 2011, American Naturalist on p. 110-118

Diversity-disturbance relationships

Alex R. Hall, Adam D. Miller, Helen C. Leggett, Stephen H. Roxburgh, Angus Buckling, Katriona Shea, 2012, Biology Letters on p. 768-771

Importance of individual and environmental variation for invasive species spread

Eelke Jongejans, Katriona Shea, Olav Skarpaas, Dave Kelly, Stephen P. Ellner, 2011, Ecology on p. 86-97

Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter

William J.M. Probert, Katriona Shea, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Michael C. Runge, Tim E. Carpenter, Salome Dürr, M. Graeme Garner, Neil Harvey, Mark A. Stevenson, Colleen T. Webb, Marleen Werkman, Michael J. Tildesley, Matthew J. Ferrari, 2016, Epidemics on p. 10-19

Are the best dispersers the best colonizers? Seed mass, dispersal and establishment in Carduus thistles

Olav Skarpaas, Edward J. Silverman, Eelke Jongejans, Katriona Shea, 2011, Evolutionary Ecology on p. 155-169

News Articles Featuring Katriona Shea

When will the pandemic end?

The worst of the pandemic may finally be over, according to new modeling results from a consortium of researchers advising the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The team’s “COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub,” which is co-coordinated by researchers at Penn State, projects that COVID-19 cases will decrease across the United States, barring the emergence of any new variants or major changes in behavior.

Pandemic model predicts big national COVID surge

By October, the U.S. could be mired in yet another Covid surge, this one especially concentrated in areas of the country where vaccination rates are low. And a new model projects upwards of 400,000 cases a day are possible.

Neglecting delays in outbreak response grossly underestimates epidemic severity

For livestock diseases, like foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and swine flu, rapid culling and carcass disposal are well-established strategies for halting an outbreak and limiting its impact. However, even when infection is quickly detected delays in these interventions may permit pathogen transmission from infected farms.

COVID-19 model consensus: Quiet summer, uncertain fall

Ongoing project looks at effects of vax hesitancy, controls on pandemic

CDC says coronavirus could be under control this summer in U.S. if people get vaccinated and are careful

Coronavirus infections could be driven to low levels and the pandemic at least temporarily throttled in the United States by July if the vast majority of people get vaccinated and continue with precautions against viral transmission, according to a strikingly optimistic paper released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Models project COVID-19 cases may spike in May, before sharply declining by July

With lower use of public health measures, such as mask wearing, COVID-19 cases are projected to increase and peak during May 2021, but high vaccination uptake and moderate compliance with public health recommendations could mitigate surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months, according to new model projections.

Mortality rises among public when health workers get sick in an outbreak

When healthcare workers become ill during a disease outbreak, overall case counts and mortality rates may significantly increase, according to a new model created by researchers at Penn State. The findings may help to improve interventions that aim to mitigate the effects of outbreaks such as COVID-19.

Which COVID-19 models should we use to make policy decisions?

With so many COVID-19 models being developed, how do policymakers know which ones to use? A new process to harness multiple disease models for outbreak management has been developed by an international team of researchers.

'The reason we do this is to save lives’: An inside look at coronavirus research efforts at Penn State

As cases of the coronavirus began spreading globally and increasing in numbers, scientists have been racing to the forefront to attempt to understand and combat the virus.

Penn State funds first round of COVID-19 research proposals

One week after launching a rapid-fire call for proposals, awards are granted to six projects that address the global pandemic, with more to follow