Katriona Shea

Professor of Biology; Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences

Katriona Shea

Research Summary

The use of ecological theory in population management.

Huck Graduate Students

Huck Affiliations


Publication Tags

Decision Making Uncertainty Farms Epidemiology Disease Outbreaks Population Growth Climate Change Duration Phenology Learning Topology Pollinator Extinction History Invasive Species Effect Ecology Temperature Crops Foot And Mouth Disease Carduus Nutans Biological Control Agents Prediction Error Sampling

Most Recent Papers

Synergistic interventions to control COVID-19

Emily Howerton, Matthew J. Ferrari, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Tiffany L. Bogich, Rebecca K. Borchering, Chris P. Jewell, James D. Nichols, William J.M. Probert, Michael C. Runge, Michael J. Tildesley, Cécile Viboud, Katriona Shea, 2021, PLoS Computational Biology

Weighing the unknowns

Shou Li Li, Joseph Keller, Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, 2021, Journal of Applied Ecology on p. 1621-1630

Duration and timing interactions of early-life stress and the potential for recovery

Jack Seifarth, Hidetoshi Inamine, Angus Buckling, Katriona Shea, 2021, Ecosphere

Microbes increase thermal sensitivity in the mosquito aedes aegypti, with the potential to change disease distributions

Fhallon Ware-Gilmore, Carla M. Sgrò, Zhiyong Xi, Heverton L.C. Dutra, Matthew J. Jones, Katriona Shea, Matthew D. Hall, Matthew B. Thomas, Elizabeth A. McGraw, 2021, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making

James D. Nichols, Tiffany L. Bogich, Emily Howerton, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Rebecca K. Borchering, Matthew Ferrari, Murali Haran, Christopher Jewell, Kim M. Pepin, William J.M. Probert, Juliet R.C. Pulliam, Michael C. Runge, Michael Tildesley, Cecile Viboud, Katriona Shea, 2021, PLoS Biology

How disturbance history alters invasion success

Adam D. Miller, Hidetoshi Inamine, Angus Buckling, Stephen H. Roxburgh, Katriona Shea, 2021, Ecology Letters on p. 687-697

Author Correction

Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, Martin Krzywinski, Naomi S. Altman, 2021, Nature Methods on p. 321

Causes of delayed outbreak responses and their impacts on epidemic spread

Yun Tao, William J.M. Probert, Katriona Shea, Michael C. Runge, Kevin Lafferty, Michael Tildesley, Matthew Ferrari, 2021, Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Warming and shifting phenology accelerate an invasive plant life cycle

Joseph A. Keller, Katriona Shea, 2021, Ecology

Oviposition response of the biocontrol agent Rhinocyllus conicus to resource distribution in its invasive host, Carduus nutans

Zeynep Sezen, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, 2021, Biological Control

Most-Cited Papers

Supporting crop pollinators with floral resources

Laura Russo, Nelson Debarros, Suann Yang, Katriona Shea, David Mortensen, 2013, Ecology and Evolution on p. 3125-3140

Adaptive Management and the Value of Information

Katriona Shea, Michael J. Tildesley, Michael C. Runge, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Matthew J. Ferrari, 2014, PLoS Biology on p. e1001970

Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology

E. J. Milner-Gulland, Katriona Shea, 2017, Journal of Applied Ecology on p. 2063-2068

Diversity-disturbance relationships

Alex R. Hall, Adam D. Miller, Helen C. Leggett, Stephen H. Roxburgh, Angus Buckling, Katriona Shea, 2012, Biology Letters on p. 768-771

Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter

William J.M. Probert, Katriona Shea, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Michael C. Runge, Tim E. Carpenter, Salome Dürr, M. Graeme Garner, Neil Harvey, Mark A. Stevenson, Colleen T. Webb, Marleen Werkman, Michael J. Tildesley, Matthew J. Ferrari, 2016, Epidemics on p. 10-19

How do duration, frequency, and intensity of exogenous CORT elevation affect immune outcomes of stress?

Gail L. McCormick, Katriona Shea, Tracy Langkilde, 2015, General and Comparative Endocrinology on p. 81-87

Movement, impacts and management of plant distributions in response to climate change

P. Caplat, P. O. Cheptou, J. Diez, A. Guisan, B. M.H. Larson, A. S. Macdougall, D. A. Peltzer, D. M. Richardson, K. Shea, M. van Kleunen, R. Zhang, Y. M. Buckley, 2013, Oikos on p. 1265-1274

Patterns of introduced species interactions affect multiple aspects of network structure in plant-pollinator communities

Laura Russo, Jane Memmott, Daniel Montoya, Katriona Shea, Yvonne M. Buckley, 2014, Ecology on p. 2953-2963

Topology of plant-pollinator networks that are vulnerable to collapse from species extinction

Colin Campbell, Suann Yang, Katriona Shea, Réka Albert, 2012, Physical Review E

Stacked crop rotations exploit weed-weed competition for sustainable weed management

Andrew J. Garrison, Adam D. Miller, Matthew R. Ryan, Stephen H. Roxburgh, Katriona Shea, 2014, Weed Science on p. 166-176

News Articles Featuring Katriona Shea

When will Omicron peak? A Penn State professor shares national COVID-19 modeling team's projections

Katriona Shea, an Alumni Professor in the biological sciences at Penn State, is co-leader of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub Coordination Team. It brings together researchers from institutions across the United States to offer projections on the pandemic and advise the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. WPSU’s Anne Danahy spoke with Shea about what we might expect from Omicron and the pandemic.

Take Note: COVID-19 modeling expert and Penn State professor on the Omicron variant and how modeling works

Katriona Shea, an Alumni Professor in the biological sciences at Penn State, is co-leader of a national team that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Known as the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub Coordination Team, it brings together researchers from institutions across the United States to offer projections on the pandemic.

Dr. Fauci, former president Obama visit DC elementary school to encourage vaccinations

Together, they spread the word about the safety and efficacy of vaccines.

More strategic COVID-19 testing could prevent distancing and shutdowns

Strategically increasing testing capacity, either by making diagnostic tests faster or more available, can reduce reliance on costly preventative interventions, such as distancing and shutdowns, according to a team of researchers led by Penn State.

Research Models: ‘Most Likely Scenario’ Shows No New COVID-19 Surge in U.S. This Winter Research Models

Will the oncoming winter mean yet another COVID-19 surge in the U.S.? A team of researchers from more than a dozen universities and laboratories doesn’t think so, Penn State News reports. In fact, the team’s most recent models suggest “the worst of the pandemic may finally be over.”

Will The COVID-19 Pandemic Ever End? If Yes, Then When?

New modeling results from a consortium of researchers advising the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) believe that the COVID-19 pandemic will be over by 2022. However, there are many factors that would decide when the end of the pandemic will be reached.

When will the pandemic end?

The worst of the pandemic may finally be over, according to new modeling results from a consortium of researchers advising the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The team’s “COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub,” which is co-coordinated by researchers at Penn State, projects that COVID-19 cases will decrease across the United States, barring the emergence of any new variants or major changes in behavior.

Informing Pandemic Decision-Making with Targeted Disease Monitoring

Study led by the U.S. Geological Survey outlines a means to better estimate COVID-19 occurrence and trends in populations

Model: Best scenario shows COVID declines through winter

As the number of daily COVID infections slowly creeps down in Massachusetts, some may be looking at the colder months ahead and bracing for yet another wave. But new modeling suggests, under the right conditions, it won’t happen here and it won’t happen nationally and that, in fact, the U.S. may be on the verge of the pandemic winding down.

Pandemic model predicts big national COVID surge

By October, the U.S. could be mired in yet another Covid surge, this one especially concentrated in areas of the country where vaccination rates are low. And a new model projects upwards of 400,000 cases a day are possible.