Katriona Shea

Professor of Biology; Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences

Katriona Shea

Research Summary

The use of ecological theory in population management.

Huck Graduate Students

Huck Affiliations

Links

Publication Tags

These publication tags are generated from the output of this researcher. Click any tag below to view other Huck researchers working on the same topic.

Uncertainty Epidemiology Vaccination Decision Making Hospitalization Learning Disease Outbreaks Foot And Mouth Disease Hemagglutination Public Health Seeds Applied Ecology Disease Control Duration Compliance Information Management Mortality Simulation Seed Dispersal Death Scenario Adaptive Management Strength Reduction Intraspecific Variation

Most Recent Publications

Leveraging federalism for flexible and robust management of social-ecological systems.

C. Sims, P.R. Armsworth, J. Blackwood, B. Fitzpatrick, D.M. Kling, S. Lenhart, M. Neubert, M. Papes, J. Sanchirico, Katriona Shea, M. Springborn, People and Nature

The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy

Sara L. Loo, Emily Howerton, Lucie Contamin, Claire P. Smith, Rebecca K. Borchering, Luke C. Mullany, Samantha Bents, Erica Carcelen, Sung mok Jung, Tiffany Bogich, Willem G. van Panhuis, Jessica Kerr, Jessi Espino, Katie Yan, Harry Hochheiser, Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, Justin Lessler, Cécile Viboud, Shaun Truelove, 2024, Epidemics

Ensemble<sup>2</sup>: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis

Clara Bay, Guillaume St-Onge, Jessica T. Davis, Matteo Chinazzi, Emily Howerton, Justin Lessler, Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, Shaun Truelove, Cecile Viboud, Alessandro Vespignani, 2024, Epidemics

Climate warming increases insect-driven seed removal of two elaiosome-bearing invasive thistle species

Trevor H. Drees, Katriona Shea, 2024, Ecology

Competition reduces structural defense in an invasive thistle in the field

Rachel Lamb, Joseph Keller, Katriona Shea, 2024, Invasive Plant Science and Management

Elevated temperatures shift flower head height distributions and seed dispersal patterns in two invasive thistle species

Trevor H. Drees, Katriona Shea, 2024, Ecology

Optimal spatial evaluation of a pro rata vaccine distribution rule for COVID-19

François M. Castonguay, Julie C. Blackwood, Emily Howerton, Katriona Shea, Charles Sims, James N. Sanchirico, 2023, Scientific Reports

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty

Emily Howerton, Lucie Contamin, Luke C. Mullany, Michelle Qin, Nicholas G. Reich, Samantha Bents, Rebecca K. Borchering, Sung mok Jung, Sara L. Loo, Claire P. Smith, John Levander, Jessica Kerr, J. Espino, Willem G. van Panhuis, Harry Hochheiser, Marta Galanti, Teresa Yamana, Sen Pei, Jeffrey Shaman, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Joshua Kaminsky, Juan Dent Hulse, Elizabeth C. Lee, Clifton D. McKee, Alison Hill, Dean Karlen, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Erik T. Rosenstrom, Julie S. Ivy, Maria E. Mayorga, Julie L. Swann, Guido España, Sean Cavany, Sean Moore, Alex Perkins, Thomas Hladish, Alexander Pillai, Kok Ben Toh, Ira Longini, Shi Chen, Rajib Paul, Daniel Janies, Jean Claude Thill, Anass Bouchnita, Kaiming Bi, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srini Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Henning Mortveit, Amanda Wilson, Madhav Marathe, Stefan Hoops, Parantapa Bhattacharya, Dustin Machi, Betsy L. Cadwell, Jessica M. Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Michael A. Johansson, Matthew Biggerstaff, Shaun Truelove, Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, Cécile Viboud, Justin Lessler, 2023, Nature Communications

Diversity loss from multiple interacting disturbances is regime-dependent

Luke Lear, Hidetoshi Inamine, Katriona Shea, Angus Buckling, 2023, Ecology Letters on p. 2056-2065

Leveraging federalism for flexible and robust management of social-ecological systems

Charles Sims, Paul R. Armsworth, Julie Blackwood, Ben Fitzpatrick, David M. Kling, Suzanne Lenhart, Michael Neubert, Monica Papeş, James Sanchirico, Katriona Shea, Michael Springborn, 2023, People and Nature on p. 446-454

Most-Cited Papers

The SEIRS model for infectious disease dynamics

Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, Martin Krzywinski, Naomi Altman, 2020, Nature Methods on p. 557-558

Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

Rebecca K. Borchering, Cécile Viboud, Emily Howerton, Claire P. Smith, Shaun Truelove, Michael C. Runge, Nicholas G. Reich, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Salerno, Wilbert Van Panhuis, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, R. Freddy Obrecht, Laura Asher, Cash Costello, Michael Kelbaugh, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Molly E. Gallagher, Luke C. Mullany, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Juan Dent ScM, Kyra H. Grantz, Joshua Kaminsky, Stephen A. Lauer, Elizabeth C. Lee, Hannah R. Meredith, Javier Perez-Saez, Lindsay T. Keegan, Dean Karlen, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore Y. Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, James Schlitt, Patrick Corbett, Pyrros Alexander Telionis, Lijing Wang, Akhil Sai Peddireddy, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Anil Vullikanti, Madhav Marathe, Jessica M. Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael A. Johansson, Katriona Shea, Justin Lessler, 2021, MMWR Recommendations and Reports on p. 719-724

Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology

E. J. Milner-Gulland, Katriona Shea, 2017, Journal of Applied Ecology on p. 2063-2068

Adaptive Management and the Value of Information: Learning Via Intervention in Epidemiology

Katriona Shea, Michael J. Tildesley, Michael C. Runge, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Matthew J. Ferrari, 2014, PLoS Biology on p. e1001970

Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter

William J.M. Probert, Katriona Shea, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Michael C. Runge, Tim E. Carpenter, Salome Dürr, M. Graeme Garner, Neil Harvey, Mark A. Stevenson, Colleen T. Webb, Marleen Werkman, Michael J. Tildesley, Matthew J. Ferrari, 2016, Epidemics on p. 10-19

Modeling infectious epidemics

Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, Martin Krzywinski, Naomi Altman, 2020, Nature Methods on p. 455-456

Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of intraspecific variation in seed dispersal are diverse and pervasive

Eugene W. Schupp, Rafal Zwolak, Landon R. Jones, Rebecca S. Snell, Noelle G. Beckman, Clare Aslan, Brittany R. Cavazos, Edu Effiom, Evan C. Fricke, Flavia Montaño-Centellas, John Poulsen, Onja H. Razafindratsima, Manette E. Sandor, Katriona Shea, 2019, AoB PLANTS

The total dispersal kernel: A review and future directions

Haldre S. Rogers, Noelle G. Beckman, Florian Hartig, Jeremy S. Johnson, Gesine Pufal, Katriona Shea, Damaris Zurell, James M. Bullock, Robert Stephen Cantrell, Bette Loiselle, Liba Pejchar, Onja H. Razafindratsima, Manette E. Sandor, Eugene W. Schupp, W. Christopher Strickland, Jenny Zambrano, 2019, AoB PLANTS on p. 1-13

How do duration, frequency, and intensity of exogenous CORT elevation affect immune outcomes of stress?

Gail L. McCormick, Katriona Shea, Tracy Langkilde, 2015, General and Comparative Endocrinology on p. 81-87

Harnessing multiple models for outbreak management

By Katriona Shea, K Shea, Michael Runge, David Pannell, William Probert, Shou-Li Li, Michael Tildesley, Matthew Ferrari, 2020, Science on p. 577--579

News Articles Featuring Katriona Shea

Dec 01, 2022

Q&A: What can we expect from COVID-19 this winter?

Katriona Shea, Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences at Penn State, co-leads the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided projections for COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

Full Article

Mar 25, 2022

Experts fear U.S. won’t see next COVID surge coming

As coronavirus infections rise in some parts of the world, experts are watching for a potential new COVID-19 surge in the U.S. — and wondering how long it will take to detect.

Full Article

Jan 26, 2022

As Omicron Variant Slows, Health Officials Offer Hope

World health officials are offering hope that the slowing spread of Omicron may lead to a weakening of the COVID-19 pandemic. But officials also warn of hard weeks ahead and the possibility of another, more dangerous variant appearing.

Full Article

Jan 24, 2022

Model: twentyfold drop in Mass. COVID-19 hospitalizations by spring

Uncertainty remains over Omicron immunity, possible Delta comeback

Full Article

Jan 24, 2022

Hope seen once the omicron wave increases global immunity

World health officials are offering hope that the ebbing of the omicron wave could give way to a new, more manageable phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, even as they warn of difficult weeks ahead and the possibility of another, more dangerous variant arising.

Full Article

Jan 22, 2022

‘An optimistic trend’: Covid cases are falling, but U.S. isn’t out of the woods yet

Case counts have a long way down to go, meaning many more infections are expected in the coming weeks.

Full Article

Jan 21, 2022

Two years since Covid was first confirmed in U.S., the pandemic is worse than anyone imagined

A 35-year-old man returned to the U.S. from Wuhan, China on Jan. 15, 2020 and fell ill with a cough and fever. He had read an alert from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about an outbreak of a novel coronavirus in Wuhan and sought treatment at an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington four days later.

Full Article

Jan 05, 2022

When will Omicron peak? A Penn State professor shares national COVID-19 modeling team's projections

Katriona Shea, an Alumni Professor in the biological sciences at Penn State, is co-leader of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub Coordination Team. It brings together researchers from institutions across the United States to offer projections on the pandemic and advise the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. WPSU’s Anne Danahy spoke with Shea about what we might expect from Omicron and the pandemic.

Full Article

Dec 03, 2021

Take Note: COVID-19 modeling expert and Penn State professor on the Omicron variant and how modeling works

Katriona Shea, an Alumni Professor in the biological sciences at Penn State, is co-leader of a national team that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Known as the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub Coordination Team, it brings together researchers from institutions across the United States to offer projections on the pandemic.

Full Article

Dec 01, 2021

Dr. Fauci, former president Obama visit DC elementary school to encourage vaccinations

Together, they spread the word about the safety and efficacy of vaccines.

Full Article