Katriona Shea

Professor of Biology; Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences

Katriona Shea

Research Summary

The use of ecological theory in population management.

Huck Graduate Students

Huck Affiliations


Publication Tags

Uncertainty Decision Making Public Health Testing Vaccination Pandemics Epidemiology Climate Change Duration Communicable Diseases Hospitalization Disease Outbreaks Population Pandemic Learning History Pollinator Prediction Ecology Foot And Mouth Disease Effect Error Sampling Infections Death

Most Recent Papers

Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling

Ben Swallow, Paul Birrell, Joshua Blake, Mark Burgman, Peter Challenor, Luc E. Coffeng, Philip Dawid, Daniela De Angelis, Michael Goldstein, Victoria Hemming, Glenn Marion, Trevelyan J. McKinley, Christopher E. Overton, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, Lorenzo Pellis, Will Probert, Katriona Shea, Daniel Villela, Ian Vernon, 2022, Epidemics

Governance structure affects transboundary disease management under alternative objectives

Julie C. Blackwood, Mykhaylo M. Malakhov, Junyan Duan, Jordan J. Pellett, Ishan S. Phadke, Suzanne Lenhart, Charles Sims, Katriona Shea, 2021, BMC Public Health

Synergistic interventions to control COVID-19: Mass testing and isolation mitigates reliance on distancing.

E Howerton, M Ferrari, O Bjørnstad, T Bogich, R Borchering, C Jewell, J Nichols, Probert WJM, M Runge, M Tildesley, C Viboud, K Shea, 2021, PLoS Computational Biology on p. e1009518

Weighing the unknowns: Value of Information for biological and operational uncertainty in invasion management.

S Li, J Keller, M Runge, K Shea, 2021, Journal of Applied Ecology on p. 1621-1630

Duration and timing interactions of early‐life stress and the potential for recovery

Jack Seifarth, Hidetoshi Inamine, Angus Buckling, Katriona Shea, 2021, Ecosphere

Microbes increase thermal sensitivity in the mosquito aedes aegypti, with the potential to change disease distributions

Fhallon Ware-Gilmore, Carla M. Sgrò, Zhiyong Xi, Heverton L.C. Dutra, Matthew J. Jones, Katriona Shea, Matthew D. Hall, Matthew B. Thomas, Elizabeth A. McGraw, 2021, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making

James D. Nichols, Tiffany L. Bogich, Emily Howerton, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Rebecca K. Borchering, Matthew Ferrari, Murali Haran, Christopher Jewell, Kim M. Pepin, William J.M. Probert, Juliet R.C. Pulliam, Michael C. Runge, Michael Tildesley, Cecile Viboud, Katriona Shea, 2021, PLoS Biology

Political economy of renewable resource federalism.

J Sanchirico, J Blackwood, B Fitzpatrick, D Kling, S Lenhart, M Neubert, K Shea, C Sims, M Springborn, 2021, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America on p. e02276

How disturbance history alters invasion success

Adam D. Miller, Hidetoshi Inamine, Angus Buckling, Stephen H. Roxburgh, Katriona Shea, 2021, Ecology Letters on p. 687-697

Author Correction

Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, Martin Krzywinski, Naomi S. Altman, 2021, Nature Methods on p. 321

Most-Cited Papers

Supporting crop pollinators with floral resources

Laura Russo, Nelson Debarros, Suann Yang, Katriona Shea, David Mortensen, 2013, Ecology and Evolution on p. 3125-3140

Adaptive Management and the Value of Information

Katriona Shea, Michael J. Tildesley, Michael C. Runge, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Matthew J. Ferrari, 2014, PLoS Biology on p. e1001970

Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology

E. J. Milner-Gulland, Katriona Shea, 2017, Journal of Applied Ecology on p. 2063-2068

Diversity-disturbance relationships

Alex R. Hall, Adam D. Miller, Helen C. Leggett, Stephen H. Roxburgh, Angus Buckling, Katriona Shea, 2012, Biology Letters on p. 768-771

Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter

William J.M. Probert, Katriona Shea, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Michael C. Runge, Tim E. Carpenter, Salome Dürr, M. Graeme Garner, Neil Harvey, Mark A. Stevenson, Colleen T. Webb, Marleen Werkman, Michael J. Tildesley, Matthew J. Ferrari, 2016, Epidemics on p. 10-19

How do duration, frequency, and intensity of exogenous CORT elevation affect immune outcomes of stress?

Gail L. McCormick, Katriona Shea, Tracy Langkilde, 2015, General and Comparative Endocrinology on p. 81-87

Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

Rebecca K. Borchering, Cécile Viboud, Emily Howerton, Claire P. Smith, Shaun Truelove, Michael C. Runge, Nicholas G. Reich, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Salerno, Wilbert Van Panhuis, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, R. Freddy Obrecht, Laura Asher, Cash Costello, Michael Kelbaugh, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Molly E. Gallagher, Luke C. Mullany, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Juan Dent ScM, Kyra H. Grantz, Joshua Kaminsky, Stephen A. Lauer, Elizabeth C. Lee, Hannah R. Meredith, Javier Perez-Saez, Lindsay T. Keegan, Dean Karlen, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore Y. Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, James Schlitt, Patrick Corbett, Pyrros Alexander Telionis, Lijing Wang, Akhil Sai Peddireddy, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Anil Vullikanti, Madhav Marathe, Jessica M. Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael A. Johansson, Katriona Shea, Justin Lessler, 2021, MMWR Recommendations and Reports on p. 719-724

Movement, impacts and management of plant distributions in response to climate change

P. Caplat, P. O. Cheptou, J. Diez, A. Guisan, B. M.H. Larson, A. S. Macdougall, D. A. Peltzer, D. M. Richardson, K. Shea, M. van Kleunen, R. Zhang, Y. M. Buckley, 2013, Oikos on p. 1265-1274

The SEIRS model for infectious disease dynamics

Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, Martin Krzywinski, Naomi Altman, 2020, Nature Methods on p. 557-558

Patterns of introduced species interactions affect multiple aspects of network structure in plant-pollinator communities

Laura Russo, Jane Memmott, Daniel Montoya, Katriona Shea, Yvonne M. Buckley, 2014, Ecology on p. 2953-2963

News Articles Featuring Katriona Shea

Experts fear U.S. won’t see next COVID surge coming

As coronavirus infections rise in some parts of the world, experts are watching for a potential new COVID-19 surge in the U.S. — and wondering how long it will take to detect.

Experts worry about how US will see next COVID surge coming

Experts are watching for a potential new COVID-19 surge in the U.S. — and wondering how long it will take to detect

As Omicron Variant Slows, Health Officials Offer Hope

World health officials are offering hope that the slowing spread of Omicron may lead to a weakening of the COVID-19 pandemic. But officials also warn of hard weeks ahead and the possibility of another, more dangerous variant appearing.

Model: twentyfold drop in Mass. COVID-19 hospitalizations by spring

Uncertainty remains over Omicron immunity, possible Delta comeback

Hope seen once the omicron wave increases global immunity

World health officials are offering hope that the ebbing of the omicron wave could give way to a new, more manageable phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, even as they warn of difficult weeks ahead and the possibility of another, more dangerous variant arising.

‘An optimistic trend’: Covid cases are falling, but U.S. isn’t out of the woods yet

Case counts have a long way down to go, meaning many more infections are expected in the coming weeks.

Two years since Covid was first confirmed in U.S., the pandemic is worse than anyone imagined

A 35-year-old man returned to the U.S. from Wuhan, China on Jan. 15, 2020 and fell ill with a cough and fever. He had read an alert from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about an outbreak of a novel coronavirus in Wuhan and sought treatment at an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington four days later.

When will Omicron peak? A Penn State professor shares national COVID-19 modeling team's projections

Katriona Shea, an Alumni Professor in the biological sciences at Penn State, is co-leader of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub Coordination Team. It brings together researchers from institutions across the United States to offer projections on the pandemic and advise the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. WPSU’s Anne Danahy spoke with Shea about what we might expect from Omicron and the pandemic.

Take Note: COVID-19 modeling expert and Penn State professor on the Omicron variant and how modeling works

Katriona Shea, an Alumni Professor in the biological sciences at Penn State, is co-leader of a national team that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Known as the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub Coordination Team, it brings together researchers from institutions across the United States to offer projections on the pandemic.

Dr. Fauci, former president Obama visit DC elementary school to encourage vaccinations

Together, they spread the word about the safety and efficacy of vaccines.