Katriona Shea
Professor of Biology; Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences
-
415A Mueller
University Park, PA 16802 - She/Her
- k-shea@psu.edu
- 814-865-7910
Research Summary
The use of ecological theory in population management.
Huck Graduate Students
Huck Affiliations
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics
- Ecology
- Ecology Institute
- Center for Pollinator Research
- Plant Institute
- Center for Mathematical Biology
- Insect Biodiversity Center
- Center for Chemical Ecology
Links
Most Recent Publications
Leveraging federalism for flexible and robust management of social-ecological systems.
C. Sims, P.R. Armsworth, J. Blackwood, B. Fitzpatrick, D.M. Kling, S. Lenhart, M. Neubert, M. Papes, J. Sanchirico, Katriona Shea, M. Springborn, People and Nature
Altered biological control species interactions despite phenological synchrony along an urban–rural temperature gradient
Joseph A. Keller, Katriona Shea, 2024, Biological Invasions on p. 2153-2169
When do we need multiple infectious disease models? Agreement between projection rank and magnitude in a multi-model setting
La Keisha Wade-Malone, Emily Howerton, William J.M. Probert, Michael C. Runge, Cécile Viboud, Katriona Shea, 2024, Epidemics
Scenario design for infectious disease projections: Integrating concepts from decision analysis and experimental design
Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, Emily Howerton, Katie Yan, Harry Hochheiser, Erik Rosenstrom, William J.M. Probert, Rebecca Borchering, Madhav V. Marathe, Bryan Lewis, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Shaun Truelove, Justin Lessler, Cécile Viboud, 2024, Epidemics
Misapplied management makes matters worse: Spatially explicit control leverages biotic interactions to slow invasion
Emily Howerton, Tracy Langkilde, Katriona Shea, 2024, Ecological Applications
Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub
Sung Mok Jung, Sara L. Loo, Emily Howerton, Lucie Contamin, Claire P. Smith, Erica C. Carcelén, Katie Yan, Samantha J. Bents, John Levander, Jessi Espino, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Koji Sato, Clifton D. McKee, Alison L. Hill, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Avis, Kunpeng Mu, Alessandro Vespignani, Erik T. Rosenstrom, Sebastian A. Rodriguez-Cartes, Julie S. Vy, Maria E. Mayorga, Julie L. Swann, Guido España, Sean Cavany, Sean M. Moore, T. Alex Perkins, Shi Chen, Rajib Paul, Aniel Janies, Jean Claude Thill, Ajitesh Srivastava, Majd Al Aawar, Kaiming Bi, Shraddha Ramdas Bandekar, Anass Bouchnita, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srini Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Benjamin Hurt, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, Jiangzhuo Chen, Henning Mortveit, Amanda Wilson, Stefan Hoops, Parantapa Bhattacharya, Ustin Machi, Anil Vullikanti, Bryan Lewis, Madhav Marathe, Harry Hochheiser, Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, Shaun Truelove, Cécile Viboud, Justin Lessler, 2024, PLoS Medicine
Competition reduces structural defense in an invasive thistle in the field
Rachel Lamb, Joseph Keller, Katriona Shea, 2024, Invasive Plant Science and Management on p. 17-24
The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy
Sara L. Loo, Emily Howerton, Lucie Contamin, Claire P. Smith, Rebecca K. Borchering, Luke C. Mullany, Samantha Bents, Erica Carcelen, Sung mok Jung, Tiffany Bogich, Willem G. van Panhuis, Jessica Kerr, Jessi Espino, Katie Yan, Harry Hochheiser, Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, Justin Lessler, Cécile Viboud, Shaun Truelove, 2024, Epidemics
Ensemble<sup>2</sup>: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis
Clara Bay, Guillaume St-Onge, Jessica T. Davis, Matteo Chinazzi, Emily Howerton, Justin Lessler, Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, Shaun Truelove, Cecile Viboud, Alessandro Vespignani, 2024, Epidemics
Climate warming increases insect-driven seed removal of two elaiosome-bearing invasive thistle species
Trevor H. Drees, Katriona Shea, 2024, Ecology
Most-Cited Papers
The SEIRS model for infectious disease dynamics
Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, Martin Krzywinski, Naomi Altman, 2020, Nature Methods on p. 557-558
Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021
Rebecca K. Borchering, Cécile Viboud, Emily Howerton, Claire P. Smith, Shaun Truelove, Michael C. Runge, Nicholas G. Reich, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Salerno, Wilbert Van Panhuis, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, R. Freddy Obrecht, Laura Asher, Cash Costello, Michael Kelbaugh, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Molly E. Gallagher, Luke C. Mullany, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Juan Dent ScM, Kyra H. Grantz, Joshua Kaminsky, Stephen A. Lauer, Elizabeth C. Lee, Hannah R. Meredith, Javier Perez-Saez, Lindsay T. Keegan, Dean Karlen, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore Y. Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, James Schlitt, Patrick Corbett, Pyrros Alexander Telionis, Lijing Wang, Akhil Sai Peddireddy, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Anil Vullikanti, Madhav Marathe, Jessica M. Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael A. Johansson, Katriona Shea, Justin Lessler, 2021, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report on p. 719-724
Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology
E. J. Milner-Gulland, Katriona Shea, 2017, Journal of Applied Ecology on p. 2063-2068
Adaptive Management and the Value of Information: Learning Via Intervention in Epidemiology
Katriona Shea, Michael J. Tildesley, Michael C. Runge, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Matthew J. Ferrari, 2014, PLoS Biology on p. e1001970
Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of intraspecific variation in seed dispersal are diverse and pervasive
Eugene W. Schupp, Rafal Zwolak, Landon R. Jones, Rebecca S. Snell, Noelle G. Beckman, Clare Aslan, Brittany R. Cavazos, Edu Effiom, Evan C. Fricke, Flavia Montaño-Centellas, John Poulsen, Onja H. Razafindratsima, Manette E. Sandor, Katriona Shea, 2019, AoB PLANTS
Modeling infectious epidemics
Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, Martin Krzywinski, Naomi Altman, 2020, Nature Methods on p. 455-456
Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter
William J.M. Probert, Katriona Shea, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Michael C. Runge, Tim E. Carpenter, Salome Dürr, M. Graeme Garner, Neil Harvey, Mark A. Stevenson, Colleen T. Webb, Marleen Werkman, Michael J. Tildesley, Matthew J. Ferrari, 2016, Epidemics on p. 10-19
The total dispersal kernel: A review and future directions
Haldre S. Rogers, Noelle G. Beckman, Florian Hartig, Jeremy S. Johnson, Gesine Pufal, Katriona Shea, Damaris Zurell, James M. Bullock, Robert Stephen Cantrell, Bette Loiselle, Liba Pejchar, Onja H. Razafindratsima, Manette E. Sandor, Eugene W. Schupp, W. Christopher Strickland, Jenny Zambrano, 2019, AoB PLANTS on p. 1-13
Harnessing multiple models for outbreak management
By Katriona Shea, K Shea, Michael Runge, David Pannell, William Probert, Shou-Li Li, Michael Tildesley, Matthew Ferrari, 2020, Science on p. 577--579
How do duration, frequency, and intensity of exogenous CORT elevation affect immune outcomes of stress?
Gail L. McCormick, Katriona Shea, Tracy Langkilde, 2015, General and Comparative Endocrinology on p. 81-87
News Articles Featuring Katriona Shea
Dec 01, 2022
Q&A: What can we expect from COVID-19 this winter?
Katriona Shea, Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences at Penn State, co-leads the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided projections for COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.
Full Article
Mar 25, 2022
Experts fear U.S. won’t see next COVID surge coming
As coronavirus infections rise in some parts of the world, experts are watching for a potential new COVID-19 surge in the U.S. — and wondering how long it will take to detect.
Full Article
Jan 26, 2022
As Omicron Variant Slows, Health Officials Offer Hope
World health officials are offering hope that the slowing spread of Omicron may lead to a weakening of the COVID-19 pandemic. But officials also warn of hard weeks ahead and the possibility of another, more dangerous variant appearing.
Full Article
Jan 24, 2022
Model: twentyfold drop in Mass. COVID-19 hospitalizations by spring
Uncertainty remains over Omicron immunity, possible Delta comeback
Full Article
Jan 24, 2022
Hope seen once the omicron wave increases global immunity
World health officials are offering hope that the ebbing of the omicron wave could give way to a new, more manageable phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, even as they warn of difficult weeks ahead and the possibility of another, more dangerous variant arising.
Full Article
Jan 22, 2022
‘An optimistic trend’: Covid cases are falling, but U.S. isn’t out of the woods yet
Case counts have a long way down to go, meaning many more infections are expected in the coming weeks.
Full Article
Jan 21, 2022
Two years since Covid was first confirmed in U.S., the pandemic is worse than anyone imagined
A 35-year-old man returned to the U.S. from Wuhan, China on Jan. 15, 2020 and fell ill with a cough and fever. He had read an alert from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about an outbreak of a novel coronavirus in Wuhan and sought treatment at an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington four days later.
Full Article
Jan 05, 2022
When will Omicron peak? A Penn State professor shares national COVID-19 modeling team's projections
Katriona Shea, an Alumni Professor in the biological sciences at Penn State, is co-leader of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub Coordination Team. It brings together researchers from institutions across the United States to offer projections on the pandemic and advise the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. WPSU’s Anne Danahy spoke with Shea about what we might expect from Omicron and the pandemic.
Full Article
Dec 03, 2021
Take Note: COVID-19 modeling expert and Penn State professor on the Omicron variant and how modeling works
Katriona Shea, an Alumni Professor in the biological sciences at Penn State, is co-leader of a national team that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Known as the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub Coordination Team, it brings together researchers from institutions across the United States to offer projections on the pandemic.
Full Article
Dec 01, 2021
Dr. Fauci, former president Obama visit DC elementary school to encourage vaccinations
Together, they spread the word about the safety and efficacy of vaccines.
Full Article
Oct 28, 2021
More strategic COVID-19 testing could prevent distancing and shutdowns
Strategically increasing testing capacity, either by making diagnostic tests faster or more available, can reduce reliance on costly preventative interventions, such as distancing and shutdowns, according to a team of researchers led by Penn State.
Full Article
Oct 02, 2021
Research Models: ‘Most Likely Scenario’ Shows No New COVID-19 Surge in U.S. This Winter Research Models
Will the oncoming winter mean yet another COVID-19 surge in the U.S.? A team of researchers from more than a dozen universities and laboratories doesn’t think so, Penn State News reports. In fact, the team’s most recent models suggest “the worst of the pandemic may finally be over.”
Full Article
Oct 02, 2021
Will The COVID-19 Pandemic Ever End? If Yes, Then When?
New modeling results from a consortium of researchers advising the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) believe that the COVID-19 pandemic will be over by 2022. However, there are many factors that would decide when the end of the pandemic will be reached.
Full Article
Sep 24, 2021
When will the pandemic end?
The worst of the pandemic may finally be over, according to new modeling results from a consortium of researchers advising the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The team’s “COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub,” which is co-coordinated by researchers at Penn State, projects that COVID-19 cases will decrease across the United States, barring the emergence of any new variants or major changes in behavior.
Full Article
Sep 23, 2021
Informing Pandemic Decision-Making with Targeted Disease Monitoring
Study led by the U.S. Geological Survey outlines a means to better estimate COVID-19 occurrence and trends in populations
Full Article
Sep 22, 2021
Model: Best scenario shows COVID declines through winter
As the number of daily COVID infections slowly creeps down in Massachusetts, some may be looking at the colder months ahead and bracing for yet another wave. But new modeling suggests, under the right conditions, it won’t happen here and it won’t happen nationally and that, in fact, the U.S. may be on the verge of the pandemic winding down.
Full Article
Jul 22, 2021
Pandemic model predicts big national COVID surge
By October, the U.S. could be mired in yet another Covid surge, this one especially concentrated in areas of the country where vaccination rates are low. And a new model projects upwards of 400,000 cases a day are possible.
Full Article
Jul 09, 2021
Neglecting delays in outbreak response grossly underestimates epidemic severity
For livestock diseases, like foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and swine flu, rapid culling and carcass disposal are well-established strategies for halting an outbreak and limiting its impact. However, even when infection is quickly detected delays in these interventions may permit pathogen transmission from infected farms.
Full Article
May 25, 2021
COVID-19 model consensus: Quiet summer, uncertain fall
Ongoing project looks at effects of vax hesitancy, controls on pandemic
Full Article
May 05, 2021
CDC says coronavirus could be under control this summer in U.S. if people get vaccinated and are careful
Coronavirus infections could be driven to low levels and the pandemic at least temporarily throttled in the United States by July if the vast majority of people get vaccinated and continue with precautions against viral transmission, according to a strikingly optimistic paper released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Full Article
May 05, 2021
Models project COVID-19 cases may spike in May, before sharply declining by July
With lower use of public health measures, such as mask wearing, COVID-19 cases are projected to increase and peak during May 2021, but high vaccination uptake and moderate compliance with public health recommendations could mitigate surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months, according to new model projections.
Full Article
Feb 25, 2021
Mortality rises among public when health workers get sick in an outbreak
When healthcare workers become ill during a disease outbreak, overall case counts and mortality rates may significantly increase, according to a new model created by researchers at Penn State. The findings may help to improve interventions that aim to mitigate the effects of outbreaks such as COVID-19.
Full Article
May 07, 2020
Which COVID-19 models should we use to make policy decisions?
With so many COVID-19 models being developed, how do policymakers know which ones to use? A new process to harness multiple disease models for outbreak management has been developed by an international team of researchers.
Full Article
Apr 11, 2020
'The reason we do this is to save lives’: An inside look at coronavirus research efforts at Penn State
As cases of the coronavirus began spreading globally and increasing in numbers, scientists have been racing to the forefront to attempt to understand and combat the virus.
Full Article
Mar 23, 2020
Penn State funds first round of COVID-19 research proposals
One week after launching a rapid-fire call for proposals, awards are granted to six projects that address the global pandemic, with more to follow
Full Article