Katriona Shea

Professor of Biology; Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences

Katriona Shea

Research Summary

The use of ecological theory in population management.

Huck Graduate Students

Huck Affiliations

Links

Most Recent Publications

Leveraging federalism for flexible and robust management of social-ecological systems.

C. Sims, P.R. Armsworth, J. Blackwood, B. Fitzpatrick, D.M. Kling, S. Lenhart, M. Neubert, M. Papes, J. Sanchirico, Katriona Shea, M. Springborn, People and Nature

Differences in adult survival drive divergent demographic responses to warming on the Tibetan Plateau

Hai Tao Miao, Roberto Salguero-Gómez, Katriona Shea, Joseph A. Keller, Zhenhua Zhang, Jin Sheng He, Shou Li Li, 2025, Ecology

The increase of an allelopathic and unpalatable plant undermines reindeer pasture quality and current management in the Norwegian tundra

Maria W. Tuomi, Tove Aagnes Utsi, Nigel Gilles Yoccoz, Claire W. Armstrong, Victoria Gonzalez, Snorre B. Hagen, I. S. Jónsdóttir, Francisco I. Pugnaire, Katriona Shea, David A. Wardle, Sophia Zielosko, Kari Anne Bråthen, 2024, Communications Earth and Environment

Altered biological control species interactions despite phenological synchrony along an urban–rural temperature gradient

Joseph A. Keller, Katriona Shea, 2024, Biological Invasions on p. 2153-2169

When do we need multiple infectious disease models? Agreement between projection rank and magnitude in a multi-model setting

La Keisha Wade-Malone, Emily Howerton, William J.M. Probert, Michael C. Runge, Cécile Viboud, Katriona Shea, 2024, Epidemics

Misapplied management makes matters worse: Spatially explicit control leverages biotic interactions to slow invasion

Emily Howerton, Tracy Langkilde, Katriona Shea, 2024, Ecological Applications

Scenario design for infectious disease projections: Integrating concepts from decision analysis and experimental design

Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, Emily Howerton, Katie Yan, Harry Hochheiser, Erik Rosenstrom, William J.M. Probert, Rebecca Borchering, Madhav V. Marathe, Bryan Lewis, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Shaun Truelove, Justin Lessler, Cécile Viboud, 2024, Epidemics

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub

Sung Mok Jung, Sara L. Loo, Emily Howerton, Lucie Contamin, Claire P. Smith, Erica C. Carcelén, Katie Yan, Samantha J. Bents, John Levander, Jessi Espino, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Koji Sato, Clifton D. McKee, Alison L. Hill, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Avis, Kunpeng Mu, Alessandro Vespignani, Erik T. Rosenstrom, Sebastian A. Rodriguez-Cartes, Julie S. Vy, Maria E. Mayorga, Julie L. Swann, Guido España, Sean Cavany, Sean M. Moore, T. Alex Perkins, Shi Chen, Rajib Paul, Aniel Janies, Jean Claude Thill, Ajitesh Srivastava, Majd Al Aawar, Kaiming Bi, Shraddha Ramdas Bandekar, Anass Bouchnita, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srini Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Benjamin Hurt, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, Jiangzhuo Chen, Henning Mortveit, Amanda Wilson, Stefan Hoops, Parantapa Bhattacharya, Ustin Machi, Anil Vullikanti, Bryan Lewis, Madhav Marathe, Harry Hochheiser, Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, Shaun Truelove, Cécile Viboud, Justin Lessler, 2024, PLoS Medicine

Competition reduces structural defense in an invasive thistle in the field

Rachel Lamb, Joseph Keller, Katriona Shea, 2024, Invasive Plant Science and Management on p. 17-24

Ensemble<sup>2</sup>: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis

Clara Bay, Guillaume St-Onge, Jessica T. Davis, Matteo Chinazzi, Emily Howerton, Justin Lessler, Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, Shaun Truelove, Cecile Viboud, Alessandro Vespignani, 2024, Epidemics

Most-Cited Papers

The SEIRS model for infectious disease dynamics

Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, Martin Krzywinski, Naomi Altman, 2020, Nature Methods on p. 557-558

Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

Rebecca K. Borchering, Cécile Viboud, Emily Howerton, Claire P. Smith, Shaun Truelove, Michael C. Runge, Nicholas G. Reich, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Salerno, Wilbert Van Panhuis, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, R. Freddy Obrecht, Laura Asher, Cash Costello, Michael Kelbaugh, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Molly E. Gallagher, Luke C. Mullany, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Juan Dent ScM, Kyra H. Grantz, Joshua Kaminsky, Stephen A. Lauer, Elizabeth C. Lee, Hannah R. Meredith, Javier Perez-Saez, Lindsay T. Keegan, Dean Karlen, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore Y. Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, James Schlitt, Patrick Corbett, Pyrros Alexander Telionis, Lijing Wang, Akhil Sai Peddireddy, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Anil Vullikanti, Madhav Marathe, Jessica M. Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael A. Johansson, Katriona Shea, Justin Lessler, 2021, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report on p. 719-724

Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology

E. J. Milner-Gulland, Katriona Shea, 2017, Journal of Applied Ecology on p. 2063-2068

Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of intraspecific variation in seed dispersal are diverse and pervasive

Eugene W. Schupp, Rafal Zwolak, Landon R. Jones, Rebecca S. Snell, Noelle G. Beckman, Clare Aslan, Brittany R. Cavazos, Edu Effiom, Evan C. Fricke, Flavia Montaño-Centellas, John Poulsen, Onja H. Razafindratsima, Manette E. Sandor, Katriona Shea, 2019, AoB PLANTS

Modeling infectious epidemics

Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, Martin Krzywinski, Naomi Altman, 2020, Nature Methods on p. 455-456

The total dispersal kernel: A review and future directions

Haldre S. Rogers, Noelle G. Beckman, Florian Hartig, Jeremy S. Johnson, Gesine Pufal, Katriona Shea, Damaris Zurell, James M. Bullock, Robert Stephen Cantrell, Bette Loiselle, Liba Pejchar, Onja H. Razafindratsima, Manette E. Sandor, Eugene W. Schupp, W. Christopher Strickland, Jenny Zambrano, 2019, AoB PLANTS on p. 1-13

Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter

William J.M. Probert, Katriona Shea, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Michael C. Runge, Tim E. Carpenter, Salome Dürr, M. Graeme Garner, Neil Harvey, Mark A. Stevenson, Colleen T. Webb, Marleen Werkman, Michael J. Tildesley, Matthew J. Ferrari, 2016, Epidemics on p. 10-19

Harnessing multiple models for outbreak management

By Katriona Shea, K Shea, Michael Runge, David Pannell, William Probert, Shou-Li Li, Michael Tildesley, Matthew Ferrari, 2020, Science on p. 577--579

How do duration, frequency, and intensity of exogenous CORT elevation affect immune outcomes of stress?

Gail L. McCormick, Katriona Shea, Tracy Langkilde, 2015, General and Comparative Endocrinology on p. 81-87

Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks

William J.M. Probert, Chris P. Jewell, Marleen Werkman, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Yoshitaka Goto, Michael C. Runge, Satoshi Sekiguchi, Katriona Shea, Matt J. Keeling, Matthew J. Ferrari, Michael J. Tildesley, 2018, PLoS Computational Biology on p. e1006202

News Articles Featuring Katriona Shea

Dec 01, 2022

Q&A: What can we expect from COVID-19 this winter?

Katriona Shea, Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences at Penn State, co-leads the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided projections for COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

Full Article

Mar 25, 2022

Experts fear U.S. won’t see next COVID surge coming

As coronavirus infections rise in some parts of the world, experts are watching for a potential new COVID-19 surge in the U.S. — and wondering how long it will take to detect.

Full Article

Jan 26, 2022

As Omicron Variant Slows, Health Officials Offer Hope

World health officials are offering hope that the slowing spread of Omicron may lead to a weakening of the COVID-19 pandemic. But officials also warn of hard weeks ahead and the possibility of another, more dangerous variant appearing.

Full Article

Jan 24, 2022

Model: twentyfold drop in Mass. COVID-19 hospitalizations by spring

Uncertainty remains over Omicron immunity, possible Delta comeback

Full Article

Jan 24, 2022

Hope seen once the omicron wave increases global immunity

World health officials are offering hope that the ebbing of the omicron wave could give way to a new, more manageable phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, even as they warn of difficult weeks ahead and the possibility of another, more dangerous variant arising.

Full Article

Jan 22, 2022

‘An optimistic trend’: Covid cases are falling, but U.S. isn’t out of the woods yet

Case counts have a long way down to go, meaning many more infections are expected in the coming weeks.

Full Article

Jan 21, 2022

Two years since Covid was first confirmed in U.S., the pandemic is worse than anyone imagined

A 35-year-old man returned to the U.S. from Wuhan, China on Jan. 15, 2020 and fell ill with a cough and fever. He had read an alert from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about an outbreak of a novel coronavirus in Wuhan and sought treatment at an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington four days later.

Full Article

Jan 05, 2022

When will Omicron peak? A Penn State professor shares national COVID-19 modeling team's projections

Katriona Shea, an Alumni Professor in the biological sciences at Penn State, is co-leader of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub Coordination Team. It brings together researchers from institutions across the United States to offer projections on the pandemic and advise the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. WPSU’s Anne Danahy spoke with Shea about what we might expect from Omicron and the pandemic.

Full Article

Dec 03, 2021

Take Note: COVID-19 modeling expert and Penn State professor on the Omicron variant and how modeling works

Katriona Shea, an Alumni Professor in the biological sciences at Penn State, is co-leader of a national team that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Known as the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub Coordination Team, it brings together researchers from institutions across the United States to offer projections on the pandemic.

Full Article

Dec 01, 2021

Dr. Fauci, former president Obama visit DC elementary school to encourage vaccinations

Together, they spread the word about the safety and efficacy of vaccines.

Full Article

Oct 28, 2021

More strategic COVID-19 testing could prevent distancing and shutdowns

Strategically increasing testing capacity, either by making diagnostic tests faster or more available, can reduce reliance on costly preventative interventions, such as distancing and shutdowns, according to a team of researchers led by Penn State.

Full Article

Oct 02, 2021

Research Models: ‘Most Likely Scenario’ Shows No New COVID-19 Surge in U.S. This Winter Research Models

Will the oncoming winter mean yet another COVID-19 surge in the U.S.? A team of researchers from more than a dozen universities and laboratories doesn’t think so, Penn State News reports. In fact, the team’s most recent models suggest “the worst of the pandemic may finally be over.”

Full Article

Oct 02, 2021

Will The COVID-19 Pandemic Ever End? If Yes, Then When?

New modeling results from a consortium of researchers advising the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) believe that the COVID-19 pandemic will be over by 2022. However, there are many factors that would decide when the end of the pandemic will be reached.

Full Article

Sep 24, 2021

When will the pandemic end?

The worst of the pandemic may finally be over, according to new modeling results from a consortium of researchers advising the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The team’s “COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub,” which is co-coordinated by researchers at Penn State, projects that COVID-19 cases will decrease across the United States, barring the emergence of any new variants or major changes in behavior.

Full Article

Sep 23, 2021

Informing Pandemic Decision-Making with Targeted Disease Monitoring

Study led by the U.S. Geological Survey outlines a means to better estimate COVID-19 occurrence and trends in populations

Full Article

Sep 22, 2021

Model: Best scenario shows COVID declines through winter

As the number of daily COVID infections slowly creeps down in Massachusetts, some may be looking at the colder months ahead and bracing for yet another wave. But new modeling suggests, under the right conditions, it won’t happen here and it won’t happen nationally and that, in fact, the U.S. may be on the verge of the pandemic winding down.

Full Article

Jul 22, 2021

Pandemic model predicts big national COVID surge

By October, the U.S. could be mired in yet another Covid surge, this one especially concentrated in areas of the country where vaccination rates are low. And a new model projects upwards of 400,000 cases a day are possible.

Full Article

Jul 09, 2021

Neglecting delays in outbreak response grossly underestimates epidemic severity

For livestock diseases, like foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and swine flu, rapid culling and carcass disposal are well-established strategies for halting an outbreak and limiting its impact. However, even when infection is quickly detected delays in these interventions may permit pathogen transmission from infected farms.

Full Article

May 25, 2021

COVID-19 model consensus: Quiet summer, uncertain fall

Ongoing project looks at effects of vax hesitancy, controls on pandemic

Full Article

May 05, 2021

CDC says coronavirus could be under control this summer in U.S. if people get vaccinated and are careful

Coronavirus infections could be driven to low levels and the pandemic at least temporarily throttled in the United States by July if the vast majority of people get vaccinated and continue with precautions against viral transmission, according to a strikingly optimistic paper released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Full Article

May 05, 2021

Models project COVID-19 cases may spike in May, before sharply declining by July

With lower use of public health measures, such as mask wearing, COVID-19 cases are projected to increase and peak during May 2021, but high vaccination uptake and moderate compliance with public health recommendations could mitigate surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months, according to new model projections.

Full Article

Feb 25, 2021

Mortality rises among public when health workers get sick in an outbreak

When healthcare workers become ill during a disease outbreak, overall case counts and mortality rates may significantly increase, according to a new model created by researchers at Penn State. The findings may help to improve interventions that aim to mitigate the effects of outbreaks such as COVID-19.

Full Article

May 07, 2020

Which COVID-19 models should we use to make policy decisions?

With so many COVID-19 models being developed, how do policymakers know which ones to use? A new process to harness multiple disease models for outbreak management has been developed by an international team of researchers.

Full Article

Apr 11, 2020

'The reason we do this is to save lives’: An inside look at coronavirus research efforts at Penn State

As cases of the coronavirus began spreading globally and increasing in numbers, scientists have been racing to the forefront to attempt to understand and combat the virus.

Full Article

Mar 23, 2020

Penn State funds first round of COVID-19 research proposals

One week after launching a rapid-fire call for proposals, awards are granted to six projects that address the global pandemic, with more to follow

Full Article