Katriona Shea

Professor of Biology; Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences

Katriona Shea

Research Summary

The use of ecological theory in population management.

Huck Graduate Students

Huck Affiliations

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Publication Tags

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Uncertainty Vaccination Epidemiology Hospitalization Decision Making Communicable Diseases Learning Disturbance Mowing Resource Pandemics Disease Outbreaks Scenario Population Mortality Public Health Foot And Mouth Disease Sars Virus Simulation Incidence Hemagglutination Effect Death Therapeutics Seeds

Most Recent Publications

Context-dependent representation of within- and between-model uncertainty: Aggregating probabilistic predictions in infectious disease epidemiology

Emily Howerton, Michael C. Runge, Tiffany L. Bogich, Rebecca K. Borchering, Hidetoshi Inamine, Justin Lessler, Luke C. Mullany, William J.M. Probert, Claire P. Smith, Shaun Truelove, Cécile Viboud, Katriona Shea, 2023, Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5–11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021–March 2022: A multi-model study

Rebecca K. Borchering, Luke C. Mullany, Emily Howerton, Matteo Chinazzi, Claire P. Smith, Michelle Qin, Nicholas G. Reich, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Kerr, J. Espino, Harry Hochheiser, Kaitlin Lovett, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Juan Dent Hulse, Joshua Kaminsky, Elizabeth C. Lee, Alison L. Hill, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srini Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Henning Mortveit, Amanda Wilson, Madhav Marathe, Stefan Hoops, Parantapa Bhattacharya, Dustin Machi, Shi Chen, Rajib Paul, Daniel Janies, Jean Claude Thill, Marta Galanti, Teresa Yamana, Sen Pei, Jeffrey Shaman, Guido España, Sean Cavany, Sean Moore, Alex Perkins, Jessica M. Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Michael A. Johansson, Matthew Biggerstaff, Katriona Shea, Shaun A. Truelove, Michael C. Runge, Cécile Viboud, Justin Lessler, 2023, The Lancet Regional Health - Americas

Combining models using voting systems.

W.J.M Probert, S. Nicol, M. Ferrari, S-L. Li, Katriona Shea, M.J. Tildesley, M.C. Runge, 2022, Mathematics TODAY on p. 212-215

Pulse and Press Disturbances Have Different Effects on Transient Community Dynamics

Hidetoshi Inamine, Adam Miller, Stephen Roxburgh, Angus Buckling, Katriona Shea, 2022, American Naturalist on p. 571-583

Optimizing management of invasions in an uncertain world using dynamic spatial models

Kim M. Pepin, Amy J. Davis, Rebecca S. Epanchin-Niell, Andrew M. Gormley, Joslin L. Moore, Timothy J. Smyser, H. Bradley Shaffer, William L. Kendall, Katriona Shea, Michael C. Runge, Sophie McKee, 2022, Ecological Applications

Pest management in future climates: Warming reduces physical weed management effectiveness

Joseph A. Keller, Katriona Shea, 2022, Ecological Applications

Disturbance-mediated invasions are dependent on community resource abundance

Luke Lear, Daniel Padfield, Hidetoshi Inamine, Katriona Shea, Angus Buckling, 2022, Ecology

Collaborative Hubs: Making the Most of Predictive Epidemic Modeling

Nicholas G. Reich, Justin Lessler, Sebastian Funk, Cecile Viboud, Alessandro Vespignani, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Katriona Shea, Melanie Schienle, Michael C. Runge, Roni Rosenfeld, Evan L. Ray, Rene Niehus, Helen C. Johnson, Michael A. Johansson, Harry Hochheiser, Lauren Gardner, Johannes Bracher, Rebecca K. Borchering, Matthew Biggerstaff, 2022, American Journal of Public Health on p. 839-842

Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July—December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination

Shaun Truelove, Claire P. Smith, Michelle Qin, Luke C. Mullany, Rebecca K. Borchering, Justin Lessler, Katriona Shea, Emily Howerton, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Kerr, Harry Hochheiser, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Joseph C. Lemairtre, Juan Dent, Joshua Kaminsky, Elizabeth C. Lee, Javier Perez-Saez, Alison Hill, Dean Karlen, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore Y. Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, Mark Orr, Galen Harrison, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Anil Vullikanti, Madhav Marathe, Stefan Hoops, Parantapa Bhattacharya, Dustin Machi, Shi Chen, Rajib Paul, Daniel Janies, Jean Claude Thill, Marta Galanti, Teresa K. Yamana, Sen Pei, Jeffrey L. Shaman, Jessica M. Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael A. Johansson, Michael C. Runge, Cecile Viboud, 2022, eLife

Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling

Ben Swallow, Paul Birrell, Joshua Blake, Mark Burgman, Peter Challenor, Luc E. Coffeng, Philip Dawid, Daniela De Angelis, Michael Goldstein, Victoria Hemming, Glenn Marion, Trevelyan J. McKinley, Christopher E. Overton, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, Lorenzo Pellis, Will Probert, Katriona Shea, Daniel Villela, Ian Vernon, 2022, Epidemics

Most-Cited Papers

Supporting crop pollinators with floral resources: Network-based phenological matching

Laura Russo, Nelson Debarros, Suann Yang, Katriona Shea, David Mortensen, 2013, Ecology and Evolution on p. 3125-3140

Adaptive Management and the Value of Information: Learning Via Intervention in Epidemiology

Katriona Shea, Michael J. Tildesley, Michael C. Runge, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Matthew J. Ferrari, 2014, PLoS Biology on p. e1001970

Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology

E. J. Milner-Gulland, Katriona Shea, 2017, Journal of Applied Ecology on p. 2063-2068

Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

Rebecca K. Borchering, Cécile Viboud, Emily Howerton, Claire P. Smith, Shaun Truelove, Michael C. Runge, Nicholas G. Reich, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Salerno, Wilbert Van Panhuis, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, R. Freddy Obrecht, Laura Asher, Cash Costello, Michael Kelbaugh, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Molly E. Gallagher, Luke C. Mullany, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Juan Dent ScM, Kyra H. Grantz, Joshua Kaminsky, Stephen A. Lauer, Elizabeth C. Lee, Hannah R. Meredith, Javier Perez-Saez, Lindsay T. Keegan, Dean Karlen, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore Y. Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, James Schlitt, Patrick Corbett, Pyrros Alexander Telionis, Lijing Wang, Akhil Sai Peddireddy, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Anil Vullikanti, Madhav Marathe, Jessica M. Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael A. Johansson, Katriona Shea, Justin Lessler, 2021, MMWR Recommendations and Reports on p. 719-724

The SEIRS model for infectious disease dynamics

Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, Martin Krzywinski, Naomi Altman, 2020, Nature Methods on p. 557-558

Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter

William J.M. Probert, Katriona Shea, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Michael C. Runge, Tim E. Carpenter, Salome Dürr, M. Graeme Garner, Neil Harvey, Mark A. Stevenson, Colleen T. Webb, Marleen Werkman, Michael J. Tildesley, Matthew J. Ferrari, 2016, Epidemics on p. 10-19

How do duration, frequency, and intensity of exogenous CORT elevation affect immune outcomes of stress?

Gail L. McCormick, Katriona Shea, Tracy Langkilde, 2015, General and Comparative Endocrinology on p. 81-87

Modeling infectious epidemics

Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Katriona Shea, Martin Krzywinski, Naomi Altman, 2020, Nature Methods on p. 455-456

Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of intraspecific variation in seed dispersal are diverse and pervasive

Eugene W. Schupp, Rafal Zwolak, Landon R. Jones, Rebecca S. Snell, Noelle G. Beckman, Clare Aslan, Brittany R. Cavazos, Edu Effiom, Evan C. Fricke, Flavia Montaño-Centellas, John Poulsen, Onja H. Razafindratsima, Manette E. Sandor, Katriona Shea, 2019, AoB PLANTS

The total dispersal kernel: A review and future directions

Haldre S. Rogers, Noelle G. Beckman, Florian Hartig, Jeremy S. Johnson, Gesine Pufal, Katriona Shea, Damaris Zurell, James M. Bullock, Robert Stephen Cantrell, Bette Loiselle, Liba Pejchar, Onja H. Razafindratsima, Manette E. Sandor, Eugene W. Schupp, W. Christopher Strickland, Jenny Zambrano, 2019, AoB PLANTS on p. 1-13

News Articles Featuring Katriona Shea

Dec 01, 2022

Q&A: What can we expect from COVID-19 this winter?

Katriona Shea, Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences at Penn State, co-leads the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided projections for COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

Full Article

Mar 25, 2022

Experts fear U.S. won’t see next COVID surge coming

As coronavirus infections rise in some parts of the world, experts are watching for a potential new COVID-19 surge in the U.S. — and wondering how long it will take to detect.

Full Article

Mar 25, 2022

Experts worry about how US will see next COVID surge coming

Experts are watching for a potential new COVID-19 surge in the U.S. — and wondering how long it will take to detect

Full Article

Jan 26, 2022

As Omicron Variant Slows, Health Officials Offer Hope

World health officials are offering hope that the slowing spread of Omicron may lead to a weakening of the COVID-19 pandemic. But officials also warn of hard weeks ahead and the possibility of another, more dangerous variant appearing.

Full Article

Jan 24, 2022

Model: twentyfold drop in Mass. COVID-19 hospitalizations by spring

Uncertainty remains over Omicron immunity, possible Delta comeback

Full Article

Jan 24, 2022

Hope seen once the omicron wave increases global immunity

World health officials are offering hope that the ebbing of the omicron wave could give way to a new, more manageable phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, even as they warn of difficult weeks ahead and the possibility of another, more dangerous variant arising.

Full Article

Jan 22, 2022

‘An optimistic trend’: Covid cases are falling, but U.S. isn’t out of the woods yet

Case counts have a long way down to go, meaning many more infections are expected in the coming weeks.

Full Article

Jan 21, 2022

Two years since Covid was first confirmed in U.S., the pandemic is worse than anyone imagined

A 35-year-old man returned to the U.S. from Wuhan, China on Jan. 15, 2020 and fell ill with a cough and fever. He had read an alert from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about an outbreak of a novel coronavirus in Wuhan and sought treatment at an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington four days later.

Full Article

Jan 05, 2022

When will Omicron peak? A Penn State professor shares national COVID-19 modeling team's projections

Katriona Shea, an Alumni Professor in the biological sciences at Penn State, is co-leader of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub Coordination Team. It brings together researchers from institutions across the United States to offer projections on the pandemic and advise the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. WPSU’s Anne Danahy spoke with Shea about what we might expect from Omicron and the pandemic.

Full Article

Dec 03, 2021

Take Note: COVID-19 modeling expert and Penn State professor on the Omicron variant and how modeling works

Katriona Shea, an Alumni Professor in the biological sciences at Penn State, is co-leader of a national team that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Known as the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub Coordination Team, it brings together researchers from institutions across the United States to offer projections on the pandemic.

Full Article