Impacts of climate change simulation on early successional vegetation communities

The fourth International Panel on Climate Change reported that global temperature will rise between 1.4 - 5.8 C by the end of the current century._ Models and simulations have indicated that this could cause dramatic changes in forest species composition as southern species are able to successfully migrate northward._ Concurrently, forest harvesting operations provide opportunities for forest community composition to change dramatically and will likely interact with and catalyze species migration. I am interested in how climate change may alter the species composition and structure of early-successional vegetation of post-harvest stands._ Altering herb and shrub communities can greatly impact how, when, and what tree species will later dominate the developing forest._ My research will investigate the climate/land use interaction using two different approaches._ The first is a climate manipulation experiment following a whole-tree harvest in Stone Valley where we have warmed the air by 2 C above ambient and increased precipitation by 20% of the long-term average. I will be look at the effects of climate change manipulation and harvesting on early successional community composition and structure._ Previous studies suggest that certain species will be able to respond more favorably to the climate treatments, potentially altering the vegetation community of these plots._ The second part of my study will involve vegetation surveys and structure analyses of other clear-cut forests of varying ages to understand how herbaceous and shrubby vegetation are effecting tree seedling regeneration._ Trends in species, functional group, or community response to climate change observed in our experimental plots will be compared to observations from clear-cuts to gain a better understanding of how climate change might alter forest recovery following stand-replacing disturbance.